El presidente de Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y su predecesor en la Oficina Oval, Donald Trump, están a punto de librar el enfrentamiento más directo hasta el momento de su posible revancha mientras los republicanos de extrema derecha de la Cámara de Representantes llevan a la nación al borde de un cierre del Gobierno.
La intensa actividad desde Washington hasta el estado indeciso de Michigan durante esta semana crucial recordará cómo el extremismo sacudió las instituciones políticas durante el turbulento mandato del expresidente Trump y pondrá a prueba la capacidad de Biden para explotar nuevamente el caos para potenciar su candidatura a la reelección.
El Gobierno podría quedarse sin dinero la medianoche de este sábado mientras el presidente de la Cámara de Representantes, Kevin McCarthy, lucha por controlar una facción de su mayoría que busca quemar todo. Los rebeldes mantienen la financiación como rehén de sus demandas de enormes recortes de gastos que no tienen poder para obligar a aceptar al Senado, controlado por los demócratas, y a la Casa Blanca.
A cientos de kilómetros de distancia, en Michigan, Biden y Trump intensificarán su supuesta campaña electoral general en una temprana escaramuza por los votos de los obreros del Medio Oeste en el contexto de una huelga que paraliza la icónica industria automotriz estadounidense. El paro expuso una falla entre el apoyo de larga data de Biden a los trabajadores sindicales que buscan aumentos salariales y sus planes para una revolución de los vehículos eléctricos que podría transformar la industria. Trump, que se opone a los planes de una economía baja en carbono para luchar contra el cambio climático, inició el enfrentamiento programando una visita a los trabajadores en huelga este miércoles, la misma noche en que otros aspirantes republicanos debatirán. En un anuncio de radio, el equipo del expresidente afirma que él siempre defendió a los trabajadores del sector automotriz, incluso cuando el sindicato United Auto Workers advierte que un segundo mandato de Trump sería un desastre para los sindicatos.
La campaña de Biden inicialmente criticó el viaje de Trump como una “oportunidad fotográfica egoísta”. Pero Biden luego anunció que viajaría a Michigan un día antes que Trump para una caminata histórica a lo largo de las protestas. La medida refleja una muestra de destreza política del equipo de Biden después de días de cobertura poco halagadora sobre la edad del presidente y se produce cuando nuevas encuestas de este domingo lo mostraron atrapado en un empate teórico con Trump en noviembre de 2024 en medio de la insatisfacción de los votantes por la economía de su gestión. Michigan, donde Trump ganó en 2016 pero Biden volvió a la columna demócrata en 2020, volverá a ser un estado vital para las elecciones generales.
El drama en este estado eclipsará el segundo debate republicano, que la enorme ventaja de Trump en las encuestas y su negativa a asistir ha convertido en una disputa por un distante segundo lugar en la carrera. La exgobernadora de Carolina del Sur, Nikki Haley, intentará aprovechar el impulso surgido del primer debate en Wisconsin el mes pasado, mientras que el gobernador de Florida, Ron DeSantis, está bajo presión para reactivar una campaña que decae rápidamente. El evento es en la Biblioteca Presidencial Ronald Reagan en California, una elección incongruente ya que gran parte del Partido Republicano ha dejado atrás el legado del presidente que ganó la Guerra Fría contra el totalitarismo soviético y ahora ha adoptado en gran medida los instintos autoritarios de Trump.
Esas tendencias están a la vista en el Partido Republicano de la Cámara de Representantes, que planea celebrar la primera audiencia en su investigación de juicio político contra Biden este jueves, incluso mientras amenaza con cerrar el gobierno al final de la semana. Es probable que la yuxtaposición infle las afirmaciones de que el Partido Republicano, que aún no ha mostrado ninguna evidencia de que Biden sea culpable de soborno, traición o delitos graves y otros delitos menores, está utilizando el juicio político para tratar de dañar al presidente antes de las elecciones y mitigar la mancha histórica de los dobles juicios políticos y las cuádruples acusaciones penales de Trump. Aún así, el proceso podría exacerbar el escepticismo público sobre el supuesto tráfico de influencias de Hunter Biden, que ha creado una impresión de conflicto de intereses, incluso si el Partido Republicano aún tiene que demostrar que el presidente se benefició personalmente de las transacciones.
Y los demócratas ahora tienen otro dolor de cabeza ético, después de que la semana pasada una sorprendente acusación de corrupción contra el senador de Nueva Jersey, Robert Menéndez, presidente de la Comisión de Relaciones Exteriores del Senado, le dio al Partido Republicano más municiones para afirmar que las supuestas ilegalidades van mucho más allá de Trump.
No hay rutas de escape visibles mientras el Gobierno se precipita hacia el cierre
El enfrentamiento en la Cámara muestra que la profundización de la guerra civil republicana corre el riesgo de hacer que el país sea ingobernable. De hecho, ese puede ser un resultado deseable para los republicanos pro-Trump que aborrecen lo que consideran un Estado administrativo abrumador o que buscan disfunción y agitación económica que podrían dañar la presidencia de Biden y ayudar al regreso de Trump al poder.
Aunque gran parte del Gobierno se paralizará la medianoche de este sábado a menos que el Congreso apruebe una legislación para financiarlo, McCarthy envió a sus miembros a casa hasta este martes después de que una semana de caos legislativo expusiera la debilidad de su presidencia como nunca antes. El republicano de California ha estado tratando de aprobar un proyecto de ley de financiación temporal conocido como resolución continua (RC) para mantener abierto al Gobierno y dar tiempo para una solución de financiación más permanente. Pero los miembros de línea dura en su partido, incluidos los halcones de la deuda y otros que están tratando de derrocar al presidente, se niegan a cumplir. Exigen recortes de gasto masivos, además de los incluidos en un acuerdo que McCarthy cerró con Biden a principios de este año para aumentar el límite de endeudamiento del Gobierno, cuando se avecinaba un desastroso incumplimiento de la deuda. Otros quieren poner fin al apoyo de Estados Unidos a la guerra de supervivencia de Ucrania contra Rusia. McCarthy no sólo no ha propuesto una solución temporal de gastos, sino que la semana pasada no logró aprobar en dos ocasiones un proyecto de ley de gastos de defensa que suele ser fácil de solucionar.
Una salida a la crisis sería una coalición entre republicanos moderados, que temen que un cierre podría costarles sus escaños y la mayoría republicana el próximo año, y los demócratas para aprobar un proyecto de ley de gasto temporal. Pero los partidarios de la línea dura del Partido Republicano amenazan con votar para derrocar a McCarthy si éste permite tal escenario. “Eso sería algo que consideraría seriamente, señora, si eliminamos el deber que dijimos que íbamos a cumplir”, dijo el representante de Tennessee Tim Burchett a Dana Bash en el programa “State of the Union” de CNN.
McCarthy ha respondido al colapso adoptando un enfoque probar diferentes estrategias, tratando de revivir un proyecto de ley temporal e incluso tratando de crear impulso sacando a relucir varios de los proyectos de ley de gastos críticos de fin de año que financian varios departamentos que normalmente toman meses de intrincadas negociaciones para finalizar. Pero incluso si promulgara algunas de esas medidas importantes, todavía no evitaría un cierre. E incluso una solución a corto plazo que pudiera aprobar con la pequeña mayoría del Partido Republicano probablemente estaría muerta al llegar al Senado y a la Casa Blanca.
Incluso McCarthy advirtió que los extremistas quieren «quemar el lugar»
El presidente de la Cámara de Representnates, que probablemente logró mantener su conferencia unida en varios momentos de crisis a principios de este año, está cada vez más agotado. La semana pasada criticó duramente a la facción de extrema derecha de su partido por “querer quemar el lugar”. Quienes rechazan la conferencia republicana –de distritos profundamente conservadores donde las elecciones primarias son las únicas elecciones que importan– están tratando de neutralizar al Gobierno mediante la promulgación de recortes de gasto de gran alcance. Sin duda, muchos están actuando según los deseos de sus electores. Pero dado que los demócratas controlan el Senado y la Casa Blanca, no han logrado formar una coalición en el Congreso, ni siquiera en su propio partido, para una acción tan draconiana.
Sin embargo, la pequeña mayoría que los votantes le dieron a McCarthy en las elecciones intermedias del año pasado (sólo puede perder cuatro votos y aún así aprobar un proyecto de ley siguiendo líneas partidistas) le otorgaron una gran influencia incluso a grupos pequeños de miembros. Con su desprecio de los principios políticos fundacionales de Estados Unidos de gobierno de la mayoría y compromiso, los rebeldes personifican al Partido Republicano en la era de Trump, que rechazó la voluntad de los votantes al esforzarse por permanecer en el poder después de perder las elecciones de 2020 y promete “retribución” si gana la Casa Blanca otra vez.
Mientras aumentaba la tensión política por un posible cierre, el secretario de Transporte, Pete Buttigieg, recorrió programas de entrevistas políticas este domingo para presionar a los republicanos. “El pueblo estadounidense no quiere un cierre. Por lo que puedo decir, el Senado está listo para funcionar. La administración está lista para funcionar. Los republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes deben entrar en razón y mantener el gobierno en funcionamiento”, dijo Buttigieg en “State of the Union”.
McCarthy advirtió a su partido que los republicanos tienden a ser castigados por los votantes por el cierre del Gobierno. Pero Trump, que enfrenta cuatro juicios penales y ejerce una gran influencia sobre McCarthy y su conferencia, aplaude un cierre, sea cual sea el caos social, humano y económico. Trump escribió en su red Truth Social que el cierre era la “última oportunidad de retirar fondos a estos procesamientos políticos contra mí y otros patriotas. Fracasaron en el límite de deuda, pero no deben fracasar ahora. ¡Usa el poder de la bolsa y defiende el país!».
A pesar de la extraordinaria posibilidad de que Trump pueda ser un delincuente convicto para el día de las elecciones, sus rivales por la nominación republicana no han logrado hacer mella en su posición entre los votantes de base, quienes han aceptado su narrativa de que sus problemas legales son persecución política y mucho menos a los republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes que siguen sus indicaciones. Sin embargo, el debate de este miércoles ofrecerá una nueva oportunidad para que otros candidatos surjan como la principal alternativa al expresidente.
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