Entorno Global
El 2025 será un año crítico marcado por los riesgos geopolíticos. La guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania, las tensiones en el Medio Oriente y las políticas comerciales proteccionistas de Estados Unidos generan un entorno de incertidumbre. (Martínez, 2024)
El próximo año adentramos a un mundo con menos frenos a los conflictos bélicos, que parece despreciar el derecho internacional, con organismos internacionales transformados en observadores. Un orden mundial con menos reglas y más violencia.
Por su parte, los países y bloques emergentes no se distinguen entre medio de control saludable a la seguridad mundial, o si jugarán un papel disruptivo. (weforum, 2024)
De igual forma, la cooperación global se encuentra en decadencia y los conflictos están en aumento. Las instituciones como la ONU han demostrado recientemente ser ineficaces para lograr resolver disputas.
Nos espera un mundo con menos contención frente a los conflictos y más auge del proteccionismo, plantean un escenario incierto en 2025. (Centro UC, 2024) Como resultado el unilateralismo será más fuerte e incluso con posibilidades de éxito en el corto plazo. Pero sin acuerdos sobre las futuras reglas del juego.
A nivel de negocios, las empresas globales comprenden que hoy es imposible separar los negocios de la geopolítica. De hecho, consideran que las tensiones geopolíticas son el mayor riesgo para el crecimiento económico de las organizaciones.
Otro tema crucial para 2025 será el impacto del cambio climático en las relaciones internacionales. Las catástrofes naturales, cada vez más frecuentes y devastadoras, están obligando a los países a replantear sus prioridades. (Monsalve, 2024)
En el ámbito económico, el 80 % de la población mundial experimentará un crecimiento más lento que en la década anterior a la pandemia de la COVID-19. (Banco Mundial, 2024) En general, se prevé que las economías en desarrollo aumentarán en promedio un 4 % durante el período del 2025. La inflación mundial se estima hasta el 2,9 %. En consecuencia, Es probable que las tasas de interés mundiales permanezcan en niveles elevados.
La era dorada del comercio parece haber llegado a su fin. El aumento de los conflictos se ha manifestado en desafíos a las políticas comerciales, industriales y financieras.(weforum, 2024)
MEDIO ORIENTE
En Medio Oriente, los conflictos se multiplican. La situación entre Israel y grupos como Hamas y Hezbolá, sumada a la implicación indirecta de Irán, mantiene la región en constante tensión. Además, el resurgimiento del conflicto en Siria añade un nuevo foco de preocupación. (Monsalve, 2024)
Esta región juega un papel central en la producción y suministro de petróleo a nivel mundial. Las tensiones de la región tienen el potencial de interrumpir las cadenas de suministro de crudo, disparando los precios del petróleo.
EUROPA
El conflicto armado entre Rusia y Ucrania ha redefinido los mercados de materias primas, con efectos profundos en los precios de alimentos y energía. La prolongación de este conflicto genera interrupciones constantes en el suministro de estos productos, aumentando la inflación global y desestabilizando las economías dependientes de estas importaciones. (Martínez, 2024), Sin embargo, se espera en los primeros meses del próximo año un acuerdo parcial Estados Unidos-Rusia, con Zelensky como perdedor frente a sus aspiraciones de no ceder territorio.
Simultáneamente, la inestabilidad política en sus principales economías añade más incertidumbre: Alemania encara elecciones inciertas a inicios de año, lo que podría afectar su liderazgo, mientras que Francia lidia con constantes cambios de primeros ministros que dificultan la continuidad de sus políticas.
A esto se suma, la relación UE y EE. UU. que enfrenta tensiones por el escepticismo hacia la OTAN en sectores estadounidenses y los intentos europeos de fortalecer su autonomía. (Monsalve, 2024)
ESTADOS UNIDOS
Las políticas comerciales de Donald Trump es un nuevo frente de incertidumbre. La nueva administración retomara su agenda proteccionista con medidas como el aumento de aranceles a países clave, incluyendo socios comerciales como México y Canadá. Estas políticas, diseñadas para proteger la industria nacional, han desencadenado tensiones comerciales que afectan las cadenas de suministro globales, encarecen los bienes importados y agravan la inflación. (Martínez, 2024)
LATINOAMÉRICA
En lo económico, se espera una desaceleración del crecimiento en América Latina y el Caribe, acompañado de una coyuntura prácticamente sin cambios. (Cruz, 2024)
Las perspectivas presentan desafíos vinculados a las dinámicas globales, como la ralentización de las principales economías y las tensiones geopolíticas que podrían impactar en el comercio y la disponibilidad de insumos claves.
En el escenario político, las elecciones de los últimos años han transformado el panorama político de esta región, creando una división ideológica de derecha e izquierda que podrían dificultar el trabajo conjunto hacia las soluciones de los problemas que afectan la región.
La geopolítica regional está pasando por un período de transición que implica una fase de incertidumbre y transformaciones, que generan confusión sobre el panorama futuro de la zona. La región ha perdido relevancia debido a su bajo crecimiento económico y a su rezago en la adopción de tecnologías de punta.
REPUBLICA DOMINICANA.
La economía dominicana mantendrá el ritmo de su crecimiento, el cual podría disminuir levemente en el 2025. Se espera que la tasa de desempleo continúe sin variación y la inflación continúe dentro del rango meta del Banco Central, alrededor de 3.5%. (Cruz, 2024)
No obstante, las perspectivas para 2025 estarán condicionadas por la evolución económica de Estados Unidos y por las políticas migratorias que afectan a la diáspora dominicana. (Polanco, 2024)
Del mismo modo, el impacto de los precios del petróleo que no solo afecta la energía. Un incremento sostenido encarece el transporte, la producción y distribución de bienes y servicios, generando inflación generalizada.
La inestabilidad política generada en Haití provocará más flujos migratorios a República Dominicana, incrementando la presión económica y afectando el presupuesto nacional.
Finalmente
El contexto internacional para el 2025, los líderes globales tendrán que abordar desafíos para llegar a acuerdos, construir un marco global que promueva la paz y prosperidad, en lugar de agresión e incertidumbre económica, dentro de un escenario con Medio Oriente convulsionado, con nuevos actores paraestatales, la Unión Europea incómoda frente a Trump y sus negociaciones sin aliados; y una China pragmática pero en alerta frente a la inestabilidad regional.
En este entorno, se espera que República Dominicana aproveche su desempeño en sectores como el turismo, las remesas y las exportaciones de zonas francas para sostener su ritmo de crecimiento económico. El reto será mantener este comportamiento en un ambiente externo menos favorable e impredecible.
http://molpit.ru – стиль, качество и доступность для вашего дома.
Каждая живая елка — это не просто дерево, это хранитель волшебства, который объединяет семьи и друзей в самые светлые моменты жизни. Пусть эта елка станет центром вашего новогоднего праздника, наполненного смехом, счастьем и волшебством!- [url=https://www.metronews.ru/partners/novosti-partnerov-255/reviews/luchshie-sorta-novogodnih-elok-dlya-doma-el-sosna-ili-pihta-2175119/]кновогодние ели купить[/url]
Качественный асфальт выдерживает любые погодные условия и нагрузки, что делает его идеальным для парковок, дорожек и дворов – [url=https://www.c-inform.info/news/id/110853]ямочный ремонт литым асфальтом[/url]
Полезные советы по безопасной покупке диплома о высшем образовании
Аттестат школы купить официально с упрощенным обучением в Москве
[url=https://mikro-zaim-online.ru/]самые новые микрозаймы еще малоизвестные[/url] — это простой выход из любой ситуации. До 100 тысяч рублей за пару минут, минимум условий и выгодные условия для всех.
Когда речь идет о ремонте, выбор правильной краски — это один из самых важных этапов. Строительные краски не только придают вашему интерьеру стильный вид, но и защищают поверхности от внешних воздействий. Мы предлагаем широкий ассортимент высококачественных строительных красок, которые удовлетворят потребности как профессиональных строителей, так и домашних мастеров – [url=https://1istochnik.ru/news/150110]купить краску по металлу.[/url]
Ordering Viagra from an online pharmacy can have several advantages:
Convenience: Online pharmacies allow you to conveniently order your medication from home, without having to visit a physical pharmacy. This is especially important for people with limited mobility or busy schedules.
Privacy: Ordering Viagra online provides a greater degree of privacy. Many men may feel uncomfortable buying these medications from a regular pharmacy, and buying online helps avoid this discomfort.
Availability of information: Online pharmacies often provide detailed descriptions of the medications, instructions for use, and reviews from other customers, which can help you make a decision.
Price comparison: Online pharmacies make it easier to compare prices for Viagra from different pharmacies and find the best deal.
Convenient payment and delivery options: Many online pharmacies offer a variety of payment and delivery options, making the process of receiving your medication more convenient.
However, it is important to remember that online medication purchases should only be made through licensed and trusted pharmacies. It is recommended to consult a doctor before starting to take Viagra.
Our pharmacy has all the licenses and has passed all the checks!
https://telegra.ph/Ordering-Viagra-from-an-online-pharmacy-12-25
Home – analisisglobal.com
[url=https://applebe.ru]Programs as SaaS[/url]
[url=https://www.auguri.at/radfruehling-salzburg/#comment-75931]Hello[/url] [url=https://safetravelguide.org/country/american-samoa/#comment-308]Hello[/url] [url=http://projetosintegrados.com.br/media-elements/#comment-1108313]Hello[/url] [url=https://lepori.de/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=12032]Hello[/url] [url=http://xindongro.weclub.info/viewthread.php?tid=968507&pid=1180141&page=663&extra=#pid1180141]Hello[/url] 91235c9 [url=http://trafficrevenge.com/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=https://s2bs.ru]SaaS[/url]
пансионат для престарелых в крыму [url=https://www.xn—–2-53dwibb3a5adehvkaijkcgoft4dwa1orb.xn--p1ai]пансионат для престарелых в крыму[/url] .
https://www.u-fitness.ru – профессиональные услуги по созданию кухонь вашей мечты.
Более 40 МФО помогут вам прямо сейчас. мфо новые без отказа на карту доступен всем без проверок. Деньги поступают на карту мгновенно.
Hello, every time i used to check website posts here early in the morning, for the reason that i like to gain knowledge of more and more.
зрелые эро чат
слитые курсы от скиллбокс https://sliv-kursov213.ru
https://www.osmio.ru — стильные и функциональные кухни под заказ.
В современном мире, где качество и безопасность товаров и услуг становятся все более важными, сертификация играет ключевую роль. Мы предлагаем профессиональные услуги по сертификации, которые помогут вашему бизнесу соответствовать международным стандартам и укрепить доверие клиентов. – [url=https://progorodnn.ru/sertifikaciya-importnoy-produkcii-po-tr-ts-chto-vazhno-znat]декларация соответствия тр тс.[/url]
Теперь вижу ситуацию иначе.
butirkaconcert.ru
Может, вы и правы
butirkaconcert.ru
Теперь вижу ситуацию иначе.
butirkaconcert.ru
Пожалуй, в этом есть смысл
butirkaconcert.ru
Рекомендую – лучшие скороварки из нержавеющей стали
Теперь вижу ситуацию иначе.
butirkaconcert.ru
Вероятно, вы не ошибаетесь
butirkaconcert.ru
Возможно, вы правы
butirkaconcert.ru
Может, вы и правы
butirkaconcert.ru
Рекомендую – какая скороварка лучше
I gotta favorite this web site it seems extremely helpful very useful
Great delivery. Souynd arguments. Keep up the great effort.
Very neat blog article.Really looking forward to read more. Keep writing.
https://t.me/s/topkazino_online«> ТОП онлайн-казино для игроков в России
Альткоин сс обменник – Alt coin cc, Alt coin cc обменник
Do you mid iif I uote a few off your posts as long aas I providre crtedit annd sources back too
your blog? My blog site is in tthe ezact same area oof imterest as yours andd my visitors would defnitely bwnefit fro sme off thee information you
present here. Pleawse let mme know iff thhis alright with you.
Thankss a lot!
Hello my friend! I wish to say that this post is awesome, nice written and include almost all vital infos. I’d like to see more posts like this.
I am not sure where you’re getting your information,but good topic. I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more.Thanks for magnificent information I was looking for thisinfo for my mission.
hydroxychloroquine chloroquine plaquenil – plaquenil hydroxychloroquine
Insulin were about 49% and 38%, specifically, whereas that of insulin/TCTP-PTD 13M2 was only 4% (Bae et
al., 2019).
It is actually a great and helpful piece of info. I am happy that you simply shared this useful info with us. Please keep us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.
Great article.Much thanks again. Great.
Thank you for your article.Thanks Again. Fantastic.
I cannot thank you enough for the blog.Really thank you! Will read on…
Im grateful for the blog.Really looking forward to read more.
Major thanks for the blog.Really looking forward to read more. Really Cool.
visit this site https://brd-wallet.io
Really enjoyed this blog.Really thank you! Will read on…
Yes! Finally someone writes about satta king 786.
There is definately a great deal to find out about this topic. I really like all the points you made.
It’s onerous to find knowledgeable individuals on this matter, but you sound like you recognize what you’re speaking about! Thanks
Hello, I want to subscribe for this blog to get latest updates,so where can i do it please help out.
This is a great tip particularly to those fresh to the blogosphere. Simple but very precise infoÖ Thank you for sharing this one. A must read article!
Some truly great blog posts on this internet site, regards for contribution.
Aw, this was an extremely good post. Spending some time and actual effort to create a very good article… but what can Isay… I hesitate a whole lot and don’t manage to get nearly anything done.
Aw, this was an extremely nice post. Finding the time and actual effort to create a top notch article… but what can I say… I procrastinate a whole lot and never seem to get nearly anything done.
Aw, this was an exceptionally good post. Finding the time and actual effort to create a great articleÖ but what can I sayÖ I put things off a lot and never manage to get anything done.
Fantastic article post.Much thanks again.
I’m only getting an answering machine meldonium for sale uk President Barack Obama on Wednesday and they agreed there would be no easing of sanctions until Russia had fulfilled all of its commitments under Minsk, the White House said.
The TikTok was posted by 19-year-old Usim E. Mang from Charlotte, North Carolina. He told BuzzFeed News he joined TikTok in March last year and usually posts dancing videos.카지노사이트
plaquenil side effects mayo clinic plaquenil for sale
I like it when people get together and share ideas.Great blog, continue the good work!
bupropion escitalopram serotonin syndrome escitalopram medication information
I quite like looking through an article that can make men and women think. Also, many thanks for permitting me to comment!
ปรารถนาเล่นพนันหากแม้ไปคาสิโนมิได้ ปัญหาโลกแตกนี้จะหมดไปครับผมเพราะ สล็อตออนไลน์ ได้ชูคาสิโนมาไว้ให้แล้ว มีเกมมากมายทั้งยังบาคาร่า สล็อต แทงบอล มองดูบอลสด มีหมดนะครับ แค่เพียงสมัครสมาชิกกับพวกเราก็เช่นเดียวกันกับไปคาสิโนจริงๆเลยนะครับ
academic writing online – writing essays for money term papers writing service
This is a very good tip particularly to those fresh to the blogosphere. Brief but very precise informationÖ Thank you for sharing this one. A must read article!
Hello there, I found your blog via Google while looking for a comparable matter, your web site came up, it looks great. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.
You made some decent factors there. I regarded on the internet for the difficulty and located most individuals will go together with together with your website.
Thank you for some other excellent post. Where else may anybody get that kind of information in such a perfect way of writing? I’ve a presentation next week, and I am at the look for such info.
This really answered my drawback, thank you!
I really appreciate this post. I have been looking all over for this! Thank goodness I found it on Bing. You have made my day! Thank you again
A person essentially help to make seriously posts I would state. This is the very first time I frequented your web page and thus far? I surprised with the research you made to make this particular publish amazing. Great job!
What i do not understood is actually how you’re not really much more well-liked than you may be right now. You are so intelligent. You realize thus considerably relating to this subject, made me personally consider it from a lot of varied angles. Its like women and men aren’t fascinated unless it is one thing to do with Lady gaga! Your own stuffs excellent. Always maintain it up!
Yesterday, while I was at work, my sister stole my apple ipad and tested to see if it can survive a twenty five foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My iPad is now broken and she has 83 views. I know this is totally off topic but I had to share it with someone!
Fantastic site you have here but I was curious about if you knew of any message boards that cover the same topics discussed here? I’d really like to be a part of online community where I can get responses from other experienced individuals that share the same interest. If you have any recommendations, please let me know. Bless you!
Nice blog here! Also your site loads up fast! What host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my site loaded up as quickly as yours lol
WONDERFUL Post.thanks for share..extra wait .. …
Thanks, I have just been searching for information approximately this subject for a while and yours is the best I have found out so far. But, what about the conclusion? Are you certain in regards to the supply?
Can I just say what a aid to find somebody who really is aware of what theyre speaking about on the internet. You definitely know easy methods to convey an issue to gentle and make it important. More folks must learn this and perceive this aspect of the story. I cant believe youre no more fashionable since you undoubtedly have the gift.
Excellent blog you have here.. Itís hard to find good quality writing like yours nowadays. I honestly appreciate people like you! Take care!!
Aw, this was a very good post. Spending some time and actualeffort to create a superb article
I think this is a real great blog.Really thank you! Great.
wonderful points altogether, you just received a logo new reader.What might you suggest about your post that you simply made some days ago?Any sure?
I take pleasure in, result in I found exactly what I was taking a look for. You have ended my 4 day long hunt! God Bless you man. Have a nice day. Bye
Hello colleagues, its great paragraph about teachingandfully defined, keep it up all the time.
Muchos Gracias for your article. Awesome.
Fantastic blog.Thanks Again. Cool.
Usually I don’t learn post on blogs, but I wish to say that this write-up very forced me to try anddo it! Your writing style has been amazed me. Thank you, very great post.
Thanks so much for the blog.Really looking forward to read more.
https://je-tall-sf-marketing-28.blr1.digitaloceanspaces.com/research/je-tall-sf-marketing-1-(485).html
Beading in tones of blue, gray, and silver add dimension and complicated sparkle to this flattering mesh column gown.
Really appreciate you sharing this blog article. Really Great.
SCAM , PHISING, MALWARE
scatter hitam ada di atlas123
Hi there! This is my first comment here so I just wanted to give
a quick shout out and tell you I really enjoy reading through your articles.
Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that cover the same
subjects? Appreciate it!
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I really appreciate
your efforts and I will be waiting for your next post thank you once again.
Great blog here! Also your web site loads up fast! What web host are you using?
Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my web site loaded up as fast as yours lol
https://ya-4545-3.e7a0.c1.e2-7.dev/company-registration-and-taxes-what-every-business-owner-should-know.html
We’ve obtained all the advice and inspiration you have to discover the right mom-of-the-bride outfit.
I think this is a real great blog article. Want more.
This paragraph gives clear idea designed for the new users of blogging, that truly how to do running a blog.
https://marketing-267.b-cdn.net/research/marketing-(101).html
David’s Bridal provides convenient online and in-person buying experiences.
Very great post. I just stumbled upon your weblog and wished to say that I’ve truly
enjoyed surfing around your weblog posts. After all I’ll
be subscribing in your rss feed and I am hoping you write once more very soon!
Pretty nice post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wished to say that I’ve really enjoyed browsing your blog posts.
After all I’ll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you write
again soon!
I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme.
Did you create this website yourself or did you
hire someone to do it for you? Plz respond as I’m looking
to design my own blog and would like to find out where
u got this from. many thanks
Thank you, I have recently been looking for information approximately this topic for a while and yours
is the best I have discovered till now. But, what about the conclusion?
Are you sure about the source?
Major thankies for the post.Really looking forward to read more. Great.
Appreciate you sharing, great article.Much thanks again. Cool.
Hey, thanks for the post. Awesome.
Looking forward to reading more. Great blog post.Thanks Again. Will read on…
Say, you got a nice article.Really thank you! Want more.
Great post. Great.
I really liked your blog post.Thanks Again. Keep writing.
canadian pharmacy world
https://expresscanadapharm.com/# cheap canadian pharmacy online
canadian pharmacy
Enjoyed every bit of your article post.Really looking forward to read more. Great.
I truly appreciate this blog post. Really Cool.
naturally like your web site however you need to test the spelling on several of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling issues and I to find it very troublesome to tell the truth on the other hand I’ll definitely come again again.
This design is steller! You certainly know how to keep a reader amused.
Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start
my own blog (well, almost…HaHa!) Excellent job. I really enjoyed what you had to say, and more than that,
how you presented it. Too cool!
Thanks a lot for the blog.Much thanks again.
I value the article post. Keep writing.
I am so grateful for your blog post.Really thank you!
A round of applause for your blog post.Thanks Again. Great.
I really enjoy the blog post.Really thank you! Want more.
I truly appreciate this article post.Thanks Again. Great.
They always offer alternatives and suggestions.
can you buy cipro
Their global medical liaisons ensure top-quality care.
Pharmacists who are passionate about what they do.
where to buy clomid without prescription
The pharmacists are always updated with the latest in medicine.
This is one awesome blog article. Fantastic.
Appreciate you sharing, great blog post. Really Cool.
Major thankies for the blog article.Much thanks again. Keep writing.
Really appreciate you sharing this blog article.
I value the post.Really thank you!
Breaking down borders with every prescription.
how to get cheap cytotec price
The pharmacists are always updated with the latest in medicine.
This is one awesome article. Really Cool.
Say, you got a nice post.Much thanks again. Cool.
This is one awesome article.
This is one awesome post.Really thank you! Want more.
Thanks for the blog post.Much thanks again. Really Cool.
Wow, great article post.Thanks Again. Cool.
What’s up everybody, here every one is sharing these kinds of familiarity, therefore it’s pleasant to read this blog, and
I used to visit this blog all the time.
Hi there, I enjoy reading all of your article. I wanted to write a little comment to support you.
A big thank you for your blog.Much thanks again. Awesome.
Really enjoyed this article post.Really looking forward to read more. Really Cool.
Really informative blog post.Really looking forward to read more. Cool.
Thanks for the blog. Keep writing.
Good blog post. I certainly appreciate this site.
Stick with it!
Профессиональный сервисный центр по ремонту бытовой техники с выездом на дом.
Мы предлагаем:сервисные центры в москве
Наши мастера оперативно устранят неисправности вашего устройства в сервисе или с выездом на дом!
I really like and appreciate your post.Thanks Again.
Really appreciate you sharing this post.Thanks Again. Cool.
I think this is a real great post.Really thank you! Cool.
Thanks for the blog.Really looking forward to read more. Really Cool.
Atlas123 Slot Gacor Mudah Menang Modal Receh
I like what you guys are up too. Such clever work and reporting! Keep up the superb works guys I?¦ve incorporated you guys to my blogroll. I think it will improve the value of my site 🙂
There is clearly a bunch to realize about this. I consider you made certain nice points in features also.
I regard something genuinely special in this website .
Thanks for sharing superb informations. Your web-site is very cool. I’m impressed by the details that you?¦ve on this website. It reveals how nicely you perceive this subject. Bookmarked this website page, will come back for extra articles. You, my friend, ROCK! I found simply the information I already searched everywhere and simply couldn’t come across. What a perfect site.
Greetings! I’ve been following your blog for a while now and
finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from
Huffman Texas! Just wanted to tell you keep up the excellent work!
Hi! Someone in my Myspace group shared this site with us so I came to give it a look. I’m definitely enjoying the information. I’m book-marking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Great blog and terrific design.
https://filedn.eu/l46Ju9IQhhQ84ifWoIzEYnJ/digi290sa/research/digi290sa-(272).html
To encourage your mom’s personal choose, we’ve rounded up a set of gowns that real mothers wore on the large day.
whoah this blog is excellent i really like studying your posts.
Keep up the great work! You realize, many individuals are looking around for this information, you could help them greatly.