Por Rosa Meneses
La intervención directa de Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido en el frente del Mar Rojo expone a la luz el peligro real de un conflicto a gran escala en el polvorín de Oriente Próximo
Cuando la guerra en Gaza tuerce la esquina de los 100 días, la escalada regional es una realidad cada vez más presente. La intervención directa de Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido en el frente del Mar Rojo, para bombardear objetivos de la milicia rebelde yemení de los hutíes en la madrugada del viernes, expone a la luz el peligro real de un conflicto a gran escala en el polvorín que es Oriente Próximo y revela la estrategia de EEUU de disuasión en el Líbano frente a la de guerra abierta en Yemen. ¿Cómo se ha llegado hasta aquí? ¿Cuáles son los escenarios más plausibles? Estas son algunas claves:
EL FRENTE DEL MAR ROJO
La milicia de los hutíes, que controla partes del norte de Yemen, Saná (la capital) y la costa del Mar Rojo, incluido el importante puerto de Hodeida, ha ganado notoriedad al calor del conflicto entre Israel y Hamas. Desde que se iniciaron las hostilidades en Gaza, a raíz del sangriento atentado del 7 de octubre, los hutíes han hostigado el tráfico marítimo en el estrecho de Bab al Mandeb, la puerta sur del Mar Rojo. Hasta esta semana, la milicia proiraní ha lanzado 27 ataques contra buques comerciales que transitan la zona, según el Pentágono. Los ataques hutíes han causado una gran disrupción en el tráfico marítimo mundial, y han dejado desierto el Canal de Suez, por el que discurre normalmente el 30% del tráfico mundial de contenedores. Las grandes compañías navieras han desviado sus rutas para evitar la zona, pero eso supone doblar por el Cabo de Buena Esperanza, un viaje más largo y por tanto más costoso que ha disparado los precios de los productos y del petróleo. A mediados de diciembre, Estados Unidos anunció la formación de la coalición Guardián de la Prosperidad para preservar la libertad de circulación por el Mar Rojo. El martes, la milicia yemení lanzó su mayor aluvión de drones, un total de 18, acompañados de misiles crucero y balísticos, contra varios cargueros y buques de guerra. Esto ha traído la respuesta de Washington que, asistido por Londres, ha bombardeado en la madrugada del viernes posiciones hutíes. Las fuerzas aéreas atacaron más de 60 blancos, como radares, depósitos y centros de lanzamientos de misiles y drones, según el Pentágono.
UN FOCO INCONTENIBLE
La intervención aérea de EEUU puede convertir al Mar Rojo en un frente de conflicto incontenible. Los hutíes habían avisado de que si EEUU atacaba Yemen, no se quedarían «de brazos cruzados». Tras los bombardeos, han prometido una «guerra abierta» para hacer pagar a las potencias occidentales «un alto precio» por lo que consideran una «flagrante agresión».
UN PODERÍO MILITAR CRECIENTE
El grupo armado ha crecido en importancia y en capacidades en los últimos años, recibiendo entrenamiento y armamento de Irán y expertise de Hizbulá, la milicia chií libanesa. Los hutíes, cuyo nombre oficial es Ansar Alá (Los partisanos de Dios) ha reclutado en los últimos meses a decenas de miles de yemeníes en el contexto de la guerra en Gaza. Poseen misiles balísticos Typhoon, una versión de los iraníes Qadr, que pueden alcanzar entre 1.600 y 1.900 kilómetros. Aunque la precisión no es su fuerte, estos ingenios son capaces de alcanzar Israel. En su arsenal hay también misiles de crucero Quds, con rango de 1.650 kilómetros. Con ellos ya alcanzaron en 2022 instalaciones petroleras en Abu Dhabi, capital de los Emiratos Árabes Unidos, a 1.126 kilómetros al norte de Yemen, así como estructuras en territorio saudí. Los drones forman parte de sus stocks armamentísticos y los hutíes se enorgullecen de fabricar y ensamblar sus propios aparatos utilizando componentes iraníes. Los Shaheed -ya famosos por haber sido lanzados por Rusia en la guerra de Ucrania- alcanzan objetivos a 2.000 kilómetros. Los Samad-3 pueden llevar una carga explosiva de 18 kilos y han sido probados contra Arabia Saudí y Emiratos para contrarrestar la campaña de bombardeos que ambos iniciaron en 2015 contra la insurgencia hutí.
YEMEN, EL RIESGO DE REACTIVAR UN CONFLICTO OLVIDADO
Aunque la capacidad de los hutíes no alcanza para entrar de forma directa, con botas en el terreno, en una confrontación abierta contra Israel, como prodiga la retórica del grupo armado, el efecto más acuciante va a ser alimentar la guerra latente en Yemen. El conflicto yemení, que se remonta a la década pasada, lleva un año congelado por un alto el fuego que -aunque oficialmente ya expiró- se ha respetado hasta hoy por las partes enfrentadas: los hutíes (con el apoyo de Irán) y los partidarios del presidente Abdelrabbo Mansur Hadi (respaldados por Arabia Saudí). En estos años, el enfrentamiento ha servido a Arabia Saudí y a Irán para llevar a cabo una «guerra por poderes». Pero ambos países hicieron las paces en septiembre pasado bajo mediación de China y eso tuvo consecuencias en una política de apaciguamiento en Yemen, aunque en un estado de no guerra-no paz. Ahora, con el conflicto de Gaza como trasfondo, se ha intensificado la actividad de los hutíes en el Mar Rojo contra barcos comerciales. Arabia Saudí e Irán podrían verse arrastrados, sin quererlo, de nuevo a una dinámica de confrontación.
EL CÁLCULO DE EEUU
Al principio, Washington había practicado operaciones de disuasión ante la tensión creciente en el Mar Rojo, como enviar buques de guerra o crear la coalición Guardián de la Prosperidad, que hasta ahora ha ayudado a más de 1.500 barcos comerciales a transitar de forma segura por la zona. Con ello, se había refrenado de intervenir directamente como sí ha hecho en Irak y Siria, atacando depósitos de armas y objetivos de milicias proiraníes que habían golpeado sus bases o amenazaban con ello. Es la primera vez que EEUU incursiona contra objetivos en Yemen desde 2016. Los ataques selectivos contra líderes y miembros de Al Qaeda en Yemen fueron una constante en los primeros 2000. Yemen es por tanto un terreno conocido para la Inteligencia estadounidense. El bombardeo se produce justo cuando el secretario de Estado, Antony Blinken, ha finalizado una exhaustiva gira por Oriente Próximo en la que ha tratado de aplacar el estallido de un nuevo frente de conflicto en la frontera con el Líbano. Blinken, de momento, ha conseguido que el ataque selectivo israelí contra el número dos de Hamas, Saleh al Arouri, el pasado 2 de enero en el bastión de su aliado Hizbulá en Beirut, no arrastre a la poderosa milicia libanesa a una guerra abierta. El frente del Mar Rojo está más lejos de Israel, pero no es menos incendiario. Podría cundir el ejemplo de los hutíes en las milicias proiraníes de Irak o en Siria, focos hasta ahora que han permanecido en un segundo plano.
PREOCUPACIÓN EN LAS POTENCIAS REGIONALES
El miedo crece a que la chispa cree un incendio mayor de consecuencias incalculables. Irán ha fustigado «la violación de la soberanía de Yemen» y advierte que este golpe «sólo contribuirá a la inseguridad y la inestabilidad en la región». Hizbulá ha condenado la «flagrante agresión» y ha elogiado el apoyo hutí a los palestinos «de forma firme, audaz y responsable». En la diplomacia regional aumenta la preocupación. Jordania considera que este es un síntoma del fracaso de EEUU para refrenar a Israel, lo que ha permitido «exponer a la seguridad regional a una escalada peligrosa», en palabras de su ministro de Exteriores, Ayman Safadi. El presidente de Turquía, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ha elevado su retórica y ha acusado a Washington y Londres de tratar de convertir el Mar Rojo en un «mar de sangre».
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