Por Miguel Ángel Martínez
Tras los éxitos cosechados por la izquierda latinoamericana en 2022, el péndulo parece volver a girar a la derecha en el 2023. No solo en término de elecciones nacionales ganadas, sino también en el respaldo popular a los gobiernos.
¿Qué ha pasado con la «marea rosa»? Los resultados de los principales procesos electorales que tuvieron lugar en América Latina durante 2023 parecen reforzar la tendencia predominante durante este siglo, que suele otorgar la victoria a las oposiciones. Lo que algunos analistas interpretan esencialmente como un signo de inestabilidad, para otros representa la alternabilidad propia de una cierta consolidación democrática, a pesar de los múltiples obstáculos que la democracia sigue enfrentando en la región. En todo caso, es preciso examinar la situación concreta de cada país por separado.
Liberales y conservadores
Argentina siempre sorprende en política, tanto por los factores que inexplicablemente se mantienen constantes como por aquellos que parecen irrumpir de la nada. El controvertido libertario Javier Milei consumó finalmente su insólito ascenso hasta la presidencia. Lo obtuvo gracias a un discurso rompedor y sin el respaldo inicial de una fuerte organización partidista. Disputó el nicho de la oposición liberal a sus ahora socios de la coalición Juntos por el Cambio.
Cabe sumar el resultado de las elecciones legislativas y provinciales, en las que los liberales obtuvieron un amplio respaldo político que posiblemente les permita iniciar la reforma de las políticas que han llevado a la Argentina al borde de la hiperinflación.
Paraguay, en cambio, es la excepción que confirma la regla de la alternabilidad que viene imponiéndose en las presidenciales de la región hace más de una década. Se reafirmó la hegemonía del conservador Partido Colorado. No solo alcanzó la presidencia el candidato oficialista, el economista y exministro de hacienda Santiago Peña, sino que los colorados también conquistaron la mayoría en el Senado y 14 de las 17 gobernaciones.
Por otra parte, en Chile continúa el largo y polémico proceso constituyente iniciado en diciembre de 2019. Una convención, ahora con predominio del conservador Partido Republicano de José Antonio Kast, elaboró una nueva propuesta. El texto será sometido a plebiscito el próximo 17 de diciembre, con un resultado que a todas luces resultará paradójico. Podría pasar que el mismo electorado que aprobó un cambio de constitución rechace un segundo texto alternativo. Esto reforzaría la postura de quienes abogan por mantener la vigencia de la actual constitución. O bien, que se apruebe un texto que mantiene el espíritu de la carta vigente.
Sin Octubre Rojo
Ecuador experimentó un intenso año electoral. Inició en febrero con un plebiscito sobre ocho cuestiones constitucionales y la elección de 5.660 autoridades locales. Los resultados se saldaron con la derrota de la posición defendida por el presidente Guillermo Lasso, agobiado por la oposición de izquierda y por el avance de los carteles de la droga. En mayo, Lasso activó el mecanismo constitucional de la muerte cruzada. Convocó así a elecciones presidenciales para el 20 de agosto, sacudidas por el asesinato del candidato Fernando Villavicencio, crítico del correísmo y del narco. El ganador fue Daniel Noboa, empresario de 35 años, hijo del varias veces candidato presidencial Álvaro Noboa.
A la semana siguiente, el 22 de octubre, la candidata liberal María Corina Machado se impuso con rotundidad en las primarias de la oposición venezolana. Obtuvo 93% de los votos escrutados. En un proceso que se condujo contra viento y marea, organizado por la sociedad civil y evadiendo los obstáculos del régimen autocrático de Nicolás Maduro, más de 2,5 millones de electores se movilizaron dentro y fuera de Venezuela para emitir y contar sus votos manualmente. Con este gesto de desafío cívico, los venezolanos han trazado una vía para afrontar las complejas elecciones presidenciales del 2024.
Y el 29 de octubre tuvieron lugar las elecciones regionales en Colombia. La ruptura del frente que consolidó en el poder al controvertido presidente Gustavo Petro alimentó la ya notable fragmentación del sistema político colombiano. Esto ocasionó que hasta 35 partidos participaran en los comicios. El oficialismo obtuvo la victoria en 9 de los 32 departamentos. Solo tres de sus candidatos vencedores pertenecen al Pacto Histórico. Por otro lado, el petrismo salió derrotado en las principales alcaldías, incluyendo Bogotá. Se evidencia de este modo la pérdida de respaldo popular en su primer año de gobierno.
México y Guatemala
En junio se realizaron elecciones en dos estados mexicanos. Mientras que en el norteño Coahuila el PRI logró retener la gobernación, en el estado de México, el más poblado del país, la candidata de MORENA, Delfina Gómez, puso fin a casi un siglo de hegemonía del PRI. Por otro lado, las primarias del partido oficialista consagraron a la ex jefa de gobierno de la capital, Claudia Sheinbaum, como abanderada de MORENA para las presidenciales de 2024. El opositor Frente Amplio, que nuclea al PAN, el PRI y el PRD, llevará como candidata a la senadora Xóchitl Gálvez.
En Guatemala, la victoria del socialdemócrata Bernardo Arévalo en las presidenciales ha estado acompañada de toda clase de obstáculos. Su partido, el Movimiento Semilla, ha sido acusado de fraudes, irregularidades y de registrarse con firmas falsas. El Ministerio Público suspendió su personalidad jurídica. En tanto, el país se mantiene conmocionado por continuas protestas populares. El Consejo Permanente de la OEA expresó, en su resolución del pasado 15 de noviembre, su preocupación por la «excesiva judicialización del proceso electoral».
En resumen, mientras que en Sudamérica se observa un avance general de la centroderecha, en México y Centroamérica las izquierdas resisten o avanzan. Si bien en la mayor parte de los casos se ha producido un cambio democrático de gobiernos, el caso guatemalteco preocupa por los obstáculos judiciales interpuestos. Y, en Venezuela, las fuerzas democráticas libran una lucha cívica que aún aguarda por un importante desenlace en 2024.
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