Los vacíos en América Latina son una oportunidad para Rusia y China. ¿Qué significa el intento de Venezuela de entrar en los BRICS? ¿Qué rol juega el G77?
Por Maria Isabel Puerta
Con el anuncio de la ampliación de los BRICS, culmina un período de expectativa de 20 países que habían solicitado su ingreso al bloque económico. En un momento de enorme incertidumbre global, debido al conflicto en Ucrania, la decisión de extender invitaciones a seis países, entre los que se encuentra Argentina, puede verse como una respuesta al reacomodo estratégico entre las alianzas políticas y económicas que aspiran alcanzar un orden multipolar que termine de desplazar al bloque dominante de las democracias occidentales.
Venezuela, al igual que Cuba, había emprendido una ofensiva diplomática para lograr su incorporación a los BRICS. Una decisión de naturaleza económica con implicaciones geopolíticas en época preelectoral del país suramericano.
El régimen de Maduro ha intentado infructuosamente que Estados Unidos levante las sanciones económicas que pesan sobre Venezuela, especialmente las que afectan al sector petrolero. Esto ha impuesto limitaciones a su estrategia de recuperación económica después de la pandemia. Además, afecta la capacidad de gestión de la crisis, exacerbando el éxodo migratorio.
Venezuela, precariedad y urgencia
El cortejo a China, con la visita de la vicepresidenta Delcy Rodríguez para preparar la gira de Nicolás Maduro por la nación asiática, dejó entrever la urgencia de alcanzar acuerdos efectivos que le permitan promover la idea de un respaldo financiero a la precaria economía venezolana antes de las elecciones presidenciales de 2024. El viaje de Maduro en septiembre tuvo como objetivo abogar directamente por la inclusión de Venezuela en los BRICS, además de formalizar algunos compromisos económicos.
Sin embargo, en esta ronda de ampliación del grupo de economías emergentes, Venezuela no fue invitada a unirse a Argentina, Egipto, Etiopía, Irán, Arabia Saudita y Emiratos Árabes Unidos, que a partir de enero de 2024 se integrarán al bloque. El apoyo de Brasil no fue suficiente, como tampoco la solicitud hecha por Maduro al gobierno en su visita a China.
La respuesta oficial de China apareció camuflada en una declaración de elevación de relaciones. Esto puede verse como cautelosa revisión de su apoyo financiero al régimen venezolano. El viraje de China sobre Venezuela inició en 2016, cuando sus instituciones de desarrollo financiero cesaron préstamos al gobierno de Maduro en virtud del deterioro económico, incapacidad administrativa y corrupción que operaban como factor contrario a la profundización de la relación financiera.
La política china hizo los ajustes necesarios para garantizar la capacidad operativa del gobierno venezolano y que le permitiera cumplir con el suministro petrolero como pago de la deuda. Este acuerdo además tuvo que ser revisado, dada la caída de ingresos del país.
El G77 y los BRICS
Ante este escenario, ¿qué capacidad tienen los BRICS para solventar las vulnerabilidades estructurales de sus miembros y aliados en el sur global? En principio, tenemos a los BRICS, una organización con aspiraciones de reorientación del modelo económico predominante, que nace bajo la bandera de una lucha ideológica. Sin embargo, hay que señalar que el Grupo de los 77 (G77) también se concibió como una plataforma de promoción de las naciones en vías de desarrollo, integrando un espacio en el que se multiplican los foros de representación. En estas condiciones encontramos que se intenta aprovechar el conflicto en Ucrania, que tiene acaparada la atención del mundo occidental, para fortalecer la idea de un eje multipolar en oposición a la dominación de los Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea.
Los BRICS, junto con el G77, representan en teoría el desarrollo de esta tesis. Sin embargo, con su ampliación se renuevan las dudas sobre esa aspiración, dada la dudosa eficiencia de contar con mecanismos simultáneos.
Por una parte, Jim O’Neill, economista artífice del acrónimo BRIC, cuestiona la extensión de un grupo que considera que tiene más poder simbólico que efectivo, pues muchas de sus aspiraciones no han materializado, entre ellas la desdolarización.
Sin embargo, su crítica apunta a los aspectos que seguramente jugarán en contra del poder efectivo de la coalición. Estos son la cohesión y coherencia entre sus miembros. Los objetivos que incluyen desafiar al poder de Occidente se encuentran matizados. Pues algunos de sus miembros (Egipto, Arabia Saudita, Emiratos Árabes Unidos, Brasil, India) tienen relaciones económicas importantes con Estados Unidos.
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Por otra parte, también hay que considerar que entre los miembros hay desencuentros muy serios de naturaleza político-territorial (China y la India; Etiopía y Egipto). En un grupo con estas características, esto implica que, por su tamaño y naturaleza, llegar a acuerdos puede representar un verdadero desafío.
Los BRICS junto al G77 representan un intento (infructuoso) de generar contrapeso al G7 y G20. Sin embargo, para quienes no forman parte de los BRICS, el G77 es el foro que les permite continuar con su desafío ideológico al orden occidental. El exhorto por una coordinación efectiva entre los BRICS y G77 más China, en el marco de la reunión del grupo en La Habana, a mediados de septiembre, lo dejó claro. El problema, en ambos casos, es que a pesar de ser economías emergentes, que representan al 42 % de la población mundial, son vulnerables. No solamente por los coletazos de la pandemia (China, pasando por un período de desaceleración económica), sino además por la naturaleza diversa de sus gobiernos iliberales, autocráticos o democracias débiles.
Eso hace al G77 una aspiración que los BRICS están tratando de simplificar, posiblemente excluyendo a los países que representan una carga. Pero esto también representa un desafío para los BRICS. Pues la vulnerabilidad se incrementa no solamente por los liderazgos autoritarios, sino por las fluctuaciones ideológicas de los gobiernos de los países miembros (especialmente Brasil y Argentina), donde hay democracias débiles, pero con elecciones libres.
Esto genera condiciones internas que refuerzan lo señalado acerca de la cohesión y coherencia. En los casos de Rusia y China, no hay problemas de sucesión o alternabilidad política. Mientras que en Argentina una posible presidencia de Milei, o en Brasil la amenaza de otro líder con las características de Bolsonaro, tendrán repercusiones a lo interno de la agrupación.
Señal de alerta
La naturaleza de agrupaciones políticas con una fuerte identidad ideológica juega en contra de la agenda económica, que es su razón de ser. La multiplicación de esfuerzos por fortalecer el eje anti-Occidente para hacer contrapeso a la influencia económica y política de las democracias liberales debería indicar que la fórmula ya ha sido ensayada, no ha dado resultados, y lo que vemos es una edición revisada. En este sentido, no es despreciable su capacidad de representación pero, como O’Neill lo ha señalado, su capacidad simbólica es lo que crece.
Finalmente, para algunos expertos, la expansión de los BRICS no representa un triunfo de China (Mohan). Pero es necesario verlo con una señal de alerta dirigida a las democracias occidentales.
De lo que se trata es que hay un vacío, que en el caso de América Latina está siendo llenado por Rusia y China. No solamente con fines económicos, sino fundamentalmente por razones políticas. El expansionismo de las fuerzas iliberales ha tenido eco tanto en los autoritarismos como en las democracias de la región. Amenaza la continuidad de estas, debilita sus capacidades institucionales y afecta la estabilidad de sus sistemas políticos.
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