Atrás quedaron los años en que Turquía aspiraba a entrar en la Unión Europea y convertirse en la fábrica del viejo continente. El país atraviesa hoy una larga y grave crisis económica que, junto a la deficiente gestión tras los terremotos del pasado febrero, ha generado un descontento creciente entre la población. El 14 de mayo Recep Tayyip Erdoğan tiene su cita más ajustada con las urnas.
La difícil situación financiera de Turquía se debe, en buena medida, a sus decisiones de los últimos años, entre las que se incluyen el recalentamiento de la economía, el férreo control de la política monetaria con fines políticos e inversiones millonarias en infraestructuras adaptadas al proyecto de país que defiende Erdogan. Las consecuencias de estas medidas económicas han sido inflación disparada, pérdida de valor de la divisa, déficit público y saldo negativo de la balanza exterior.
A finales de 2022, según registros oficiales, la inflación alcanzó el pico del 85%. Sin embargo, los análisis independientes del Grupo de Investigación de la Inflación (ENAG) elevan hasta el 176% el máximo de inflación alcanzado. En los últimos meses la escalada de los precios se ha moderado, como en el resto de Europa, pero se debe al efecto base; es decir, hace un año los precios ya estaban disparados y la comparativa es menos elevada. La realidad, sin embargo, es que los precios en Turquía siguen subiendo más de un 2% en tasa mensual.
Este incremento de los precios ha provocado una drástica pérdida del valor de los salarios, lo que está lastrando la demanda interna, así como un deterioro de la inversión por el encarecimiento de los costes de producción. El precio de la vivienda, por ejemplo, sube a ritmos superiores al 140%, según los registros. Y, en paralelo, la venta de viviendas se ha hundido un 21% en el inicio de 2023 respecto a 2022. Los turcos con ahorros optan por comprar oro, convertido en refugio para quienes temen que el valor de los activos siga desplomándose.
Asimismo, el repunte de la inflación es consecuencia de la política monetaria del país, controlada directamente por el gobierno. La insistencia en mantener bajos los tipos de interés en un contexto de inflación disparada impulsó todavía más la subida de los precios. Por ejemplo, en la segunda mitad de 2022, cuando según el ENAG la inflación era de tres dígitos, el Banco Central de la República de Turquía bajó el tipo de interés oficial del 14% al 9%. El objetivo era mantener activa la máquina del crédito con tipos de interés reales hundidos en terreno negativo en más de un 70%.
La suma de inflación disparada, política monetaria con rendimientos reales negativos para los inversores y pobres perspectivas económicas está provocando una estampida de ahorro fuera del país, tanto por parte de inversores extranjeros como nacionales, lo que ha inducido una brusca devaluación de la divisa hasta su mínimo histórico. Si hace 15 años una lira valía casi 0,9 dólares, hoy su valor es de 0,05 dólares: un desplome del 94%. Solo en los últimos cinco años, la caída ha sido del 75%. Este hundimiento encarece todavía más los bienes y servicios que importa el país, que cada vez tiene que pedir más crédito exterior para financiar su gasto.
Años atrás, Turquía aspiró a entrar en la UE y convertirse en la fábrica del viejo continente. Hoy, sin embargo, posee un tejido industrial pobre y sin margen para desarrollarse. Así, ha pasado de tener una balanza exterior por cuenta corriente casi en equilibrio al inicio del siglo, a un déficit superior al 5% de su PIB en 2022. El gobierno intenta controlar la situación interviniendo en el mercado para frenar la caída de la lira y aumentar el gasto público para compensar la debilidad del sector privado. Sin embargo, esto ha provocado que el déficit público se haya disparado hasta casi alcanzar el 6% del PIB este año, según previsiones del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), y su saldo estructural negativo se mantendrá por encima del 6% al menos hasta el final de la década.
Con este panorama, el gobierno tiene muy complicado seguir estimulando el crecimiento desde la política fiscal y monetaria sin generar más desequilibrios. El FMI prevé un frenazo de la economía turca este año al 2,6% y una estabilización en el entorno del 3% a medio plazo, cifras muy lejos de los niveles de crecimiento históricos del PIB turco superiores al 5%. La alternativa pasa por impulsar una política económica prudente que, a corto plazo, generaría un frenazo económico difícil de asumir para un Erdogan ya muy debilitado en las encuestas.
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