La cercanía con Estados Unidos y Canadá, unida al acuerdo comercial tripartito y una fuerza laboral competitiva, hacen de México un país ideal para rentabilizar la desglobalización derivada del desmantelamiento gradual de las antiguas cadenas de suministro centradas en China.
Desde 1994, la vieja sentencia atribuida a Porfirio Díaz (1884-1911) en la que lamentaba la mala fortuna de México por estar “tan lejos de Dios y tan cerca de Estados Unidos” ha dejado de ser cierta, al menos en términos económicos y comerciales. Ese año, el país firmó el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (NAFTA, desde 2020 denominado USMCA) y entre 1993 y 2007 duplicó el tamaño de su economía y cuadruplicó su comercio exterior.
La entrada libre de aranceles al mayor mercado del mundo fue solo el principio. Hoy México está en una inmejorable posición para rentabilizar, como India, Vietnam o Indonesia, la nueva desglobalización y sus secuelas: onshoring, nearshoring, friendshoring… Anglicismos todos que describen el gradual desmantelamiento de las antiguas cadenas de suministro centradas en China.
Durante décadas, la globalización fue sinónimo de manufacturas chinas, una ecuación que ha dejado de ser fiable por razones logísticas, costes laborales y de transporte, pero sobre todo por razones geopolíticas. Debido a sus extensas y vulnerables cadenas de suministro, gigantes como Walmart, John Deere o Ford presionan a sus proveedores para que fijen su producción más cerca de EEUU, entre otras razones porque la pandemia disparó fletes y plazos de entrega.
Desde 1994, uno de cada dos dólares que ha recibido el país en inversión extranjera directas (IED) ha provenido de EEUU y Canadá. A sus 3.200 kilómetros de frontera con EEUU, México suma su abundante y competitiva fuerza laboral. En 2022, México exportó a EEUU casi 400.000 millones de dólares en mercancías, un 20% más que en 2021. Es explicable. Desde que en 2018 Donald Trump impuso aranceles de hasta el 25% a las importaciones chinas, muchas empresas comenzaron a buscar el modo de sustituir el Made in China por el Made in Mexico.
En enero de 2022, Man Wah Furniture Manufacturing, el Ikea chino, construyó una fábrica de 300 millones de dólares en Monterrey (Nuevo León) para exportar a EEUU. Su antigua planta de Vietnam enviaba cada mes 3.500 contenedores de 12 metros a cruzar el océano Pacífico. Cuando comenzó la pandemia, casi de un día para otro, unos viajes que costaban 2.000 dólares aumentaron 10 veces su precio. Man Wah tiene ahora planes de fabricar cerca de 900.000 muebles al año en México, lo que requerirá contratar y retener a 6.000 trabajadores en un Estado con un 3,6% de desempleo. A los muebles se han sumado la electrónica de consumo y la ropa. En 2021, empresas chinas supusieron el 30% de la IED en Nuevo León, solo superada por la de EEUU (47%).
BMW ha anunciado, por su parte, una inversión de 870 millones de dólares para fabricar baterías eléctricas en su planta de San Luis Potosí. En 2022, México sumó cerca de 70 plantas –españolas, suizas, alemanas…– a su sector automotriz, plantas que antes estaban en China, Malasia, India y Vietnam. Lenovo ensambla en México servidores de hasta un millón de dólares. Según The Wall Street Journal, Elon Musk planea construir una planta de Tesla a las afueras de Monterrey. La BBC cita como ejemplo el caso de Marco Villarreal, que en 2020 propuso a Hisun USA, filial del gigante chino Hisun, trasladar alguna de sus plantas de todoterrenos a México. Hoy Hisun tiene dos en Saltillo (Coahuila), que ensamblan vehículos antes procedentes de Asia. Según Villareal, hoy director general de la filial mexicana, Hisun planea abastecer desde México al bloque entero, que representa el 30% del PIB mundial, con un comercio trilateral anual de 1,5 billones de dólares.
México es el séptimo productor mundial de vehículos y el quinto exportador, con una capacidad instalada para producir más de cinco millones de unidades anuales en 22 plantas, 10 especializadas en fabricar motores y transmisiones. El 90% de los automóviles ligeros se venden a EEUU. El proceso está impulsando el empleo, los salarios y la demanda de suelo industrial en los Estados del norte y el centro de México. La Asociación Mexicana de Parques Industriales Privados estima que en 2022 el nearshoring atrajo 30.000 millones de dólares en inversiones para construir 47 nuevos parques industriales. El de Hofusan en Nuevo León –de los chinos Holley Group y Futong Group–, de 850 hectáreas y a menos de 241 kilómetros de la frontera con Texas, alberga ya a 21 compañías chinas, entre ellas la electrónica Hisense, las de muebles Kuka Home y Sunon Furniture, y el fabricante de autopartes Hangzhou XZB.
En 2022, según datos oficiales, la IED aumentó en México un 12% y se dirigió sobre todo al sector manufacturero: vehículos motorizados, componentes electrónicos y autopartes. En el último Foro de Davos, Samuel García, gobernador de Nuevo León, dijo que su Estado se está favoreciendo del nuevo “alineamiento planetario geopolítico”. No exagera. Desde que asumió el cargo, en octubre de 2021, el Estado ha recibido más de 7.000 millones de dólares en IED, solo después de Ciudad de México. Monterrey es hoy una ciudad industrial en auge llena de restaurantes de lujo, centros comerciales y spas.
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