Por: MIguel Angel Martinez
A un año de la guerra en Ucrania es necesario analizar su impacto en América Latina. Aunque muchos gobiernos muestren cautela, el asunto trasciende lo económico.
Al cumplirse un año de la invasión rusa de Ucrania, y bien avanzado ya el duro invierno, las posiciones de los contendientes parecen estar relativamente estancadas. Mientras las tropas rusas se atrincheran en los óblasts del Dombás y fortifican el corredor terrestre por Mariúpol y Melitópol hacia la península de Crimea, los ucranianos han logrado recuperar todos los territorios ubicados al norte, en las inmediaciones de Kiev, así como también al oeste del río Dniéper.
Entre tanto, el impacto del conflicto sobre la política internacional y la economía mundial es notable. Mientras la OTAN intenta cercar a Rusia, que recibe el cauteloso apoyo de China, muchos países en el sur global intentan mantenerse relativamente equidistantes. Y si ya la inflación global se venía desbocando antes de la guerra, con el estallido de las hostilidades tanto el PIB mundial como los mercados financieros globales y el poder adquisitivo en general han sufrido un duro golpe.
América Latina y la guerra en Ucrania
La región, naturalmente, también se ha visto afectada. La desaceleración económica que se experimenta en nuestros países —que aún siguen jugando el precario rol de exportadores de materias primas—, así como el aumento generalizado de los precios, han afectado a una región que, en el plano político, está registrando el avance de su segunda marea rosa. Estas circunstancias, aunadas al tradicional alejamiento de nuestros países con respecto a los principales conflictos bélicos en Eurasia, explican el tono general de una actitud regional que tiende a priorizar la cautela ante el conflicto ruso-ucraniano, condenando la invasión, pero sin involucrarse de otros modos.
Por poner un ejemplo especialmente revelador, cabe destacar, por un lado, que hasta diez países en la región cuentan con equipamiento militar ruso, si bien solo cuatro de ellos son afines a Moscú (Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua y Venezuela). Pues bien, ante el exhorto de los Estados Unidos para que los otros seis (Argentina, Brasil, Colombia, Ecuador, México, Perú) donen dicho armamento a Ucrania, a cambio de reponer sus arsenales con equipos estadounidenses, la respuesta ha sido unánime: ninguno ha accedido a tal petición. No obstante, a pesar de esta actitud general, aún cabe distinguir diferencias de un país a otro, marcadas por el tipo de régimen y la posición geopolítica.
Mercosur: la relativa equidistancia
En la reunión del Mercosur que se celebró a finales de julio del 2022, el tono común mantenido por sus miembros con respecto al conflicto ruso-ucraniano demostró la misma cautela que caracteriza a la región en general. Sus economías dependen fuertemente del sector agropecuario, particularmente sensible a las variaciones en los precios de los combustibles y fertilizantes de los que Rusia y Ucrania son principales surtidores del mercado mundial.
Sin duda, el caso más notable es el de Brasil, donde Bolsonaro y Lula parecen discrepar en todo, excepto en su posición con respecto a la guerra en Ucrania. Ambos mandatarios se han mostrado bastante precavidos a la hora de pronunciarse sobre dicho conflicto, dada la necesidad de contar con suministros regulares para el agro brasileño y la agenda común que Brasil y Rusia mantienen —junto con China, India y Sudáfrica— en el seno de los BRICS.
En el caso del presidente Fernández de Argentina, las amistosas palabras que reservó para Putin antes del estallido de la guerra sin lugar a dudas se han visto moderadas durante el último año, aunque no podríamos decir que fueron retiradas. Mientras tanto, en Paraguay se constata el hecho de que el 40 % de sus exportaciones de carne tienen a Rusia como destino —el segundo más importante después de China—, lo cual incide a la hora de cuestionar la invasión rusa a Ucrania.
Alianza del Pacífico bajo la nueva marea rosa
La Alianza del Pacífico nació como un área de libre comercio que combinaba un notable apego a la democracia liberal con el pragmático y común aprovechamiento del inmenso espacio comercial que constituye la cuenca del Océano Pacífico. Pero, así como sus nuevos mandatarios —electos al calor de la nueva marea rosa— han incorporado ciertos cuestionamientos con respecto al modelo de democracia, también han mantenido, no obstante, el pragmatismo comercial en virtud del cual las relaciones con Rusia y China, si no se siguen profundizando, por lo menos no se deterioran.
Sin duda, el caso más polémico ha sido el de México, país que también forma parte del T-MEX junto a los Estados Unidos y Canadá. Está claro que el presidente López Obrador ha procurado proyectar una imagen de absoluta independencia, según la cual México es un Estado tan celoso de su propia soberanía como respetuoso de la de los demás. Y si bien esta actitud no le ha impedido mantener buenas relaciones con el siempre influyente vecino del norte, también ha venido acompañada de actitudes polémicas con respecto al conflicto ruso-ucraniano. Bajo la sospecha de que en México opera una gran cantidad de espías rusos, la oferta mexicana de mediación en dicho conflicto recibió una rotunda negativa del gobierno ucraniano el pasado mes de septiembre.
Por otro lado, el ascenso de los presidentes Boric, Castillo y Petro en los demás países miembros de la Alianza del Pacífico —y a pesar de la insólita salida del peruano—, si bien no ha derivado en una actitud amistosa hacia Rusia, posiblemente sí ha sido importante a la hora de apuntalar la actitud de moderación, cautela y distancia que toda la región ha marcado frente a los intentos estadounidenses de impulsar una actitud más beligerante ante la invasión rusa de Ucrania.
El ALBA de las dictaduras que sonríen a Putin
La Alianza Bolivariana para las Américas (ALBA) es el esquema de cooperación regional en el que mayores esfuerzos diplomáticos y financieros invirtió la Venezuela de Hugo Chávez, en aquella época en la que sus petrodólares fluían sin parar. Por alguna razón, varios de los países que integraron dicho esquema no sólo ostentan hoy los regímenes menos democráticos de la región, sino también los que más abiertamente han respaldado las acciones de Putin en Ucrania.
Venezuela no solo mantiene una densa agenda de cooperación con Rusia, sino que en diciembre de 2022 firmó 11 nuevos acuerdos en esa línea. Mientras que, en diciembre, Miguel Díaz Canel fue recibido con honores en Moscú para reforzar los tradicionales lazos de «amistad y solidaridad» entre ambos países. Estos quedaron refrendados con la instalación de una estatua de Fidel Castro en dicha ciudad. Por su parte, Ortega y Arce también han mantenido gestos de complicidad con Moscú.
No a la guerra, sí al comercio
A modo de conclusión, podemos destacar dos hechos diplomáticos que reflejan la posición diplomática de nuestra región con respecto al conflicto ruso-ucraniano. Por un lado, en la resolución ES-11/4 de la Asamblea General de las Naciones Unidas que fue aprobada el pasado 12 de octubre, toda América Latina condenó la invasión rusa de Ucrania, salvo Cuba y Bolivia que se abstuvieron, Venezuela que no asistió y Nicaragua que votó en contra.
Por otro lado, la declaración final de la VII Cumbre de la Comunidad de Estados Latinoamericanos y Caribeños (CELAC), celebrada el pasado mes de enero en Buenos Aires, no menciona ni una vez a Rusia o Ucrania, aunque sí llega a indicar que «el actual contexto internacional de múltiples crisis interrelacionadas afecta particularmente a la región, que sufre el impacto de la interrupción de las cadenas de suministro, la excesiva volatilidad de precios en alimentos, fertilizantes, energía y la inestabilidad financiera».
Fuente: Dialogo Politico
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Mullen, Ruth (April 28, 2005).
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