En el aeropuerto de Minsk, la capital de Bielorrusia, un cartel da la bienvenida a los viajeros en tres idiomas: ruso, inglés y —sorpresa— chino mandarín.
El chino está también presente en centros comerciales y otras zonas empresariales y de ocio de este país de poco más de 9 millones de habitantes.
La estrecha relación entre Bielorrusia y China no es nueva, pero ha tomado un nuevo impulso en los últimos meses, con la invasión rusa de Ucrania como telón de fondo.
Esta semana, el presidente bielorruso, Alexander Lukashenko, ha sido recibido con la alfombra roja en Pekín por Xi Jinping, donde ambos mandatarios han firmado una serie de acuerdos y han expresado su «interés máximo» en hallar una solución pacífica para Ucrania.
Lukashenko es uno de los aliados más cercanos —si no el que más— a Vladimir Putin, y ha mostrado su apoyo total al plan de paz presentado la semana pasada por Pekín para poner fin a la guerra de Ucrania.
El viaje del presidente bielorruso se produce días después de que el jefe de la diplomacia china, Wang Yi, se reuniera en Moscú con Putin.
Tanto Lukashenko como Xi se han deshecho en halagos mutuos y han descrito la amistad entre sus países en los términos más estrechos.
Pero ¿qué hay detrás de este acercamiento estratégico? ¿Busca China cerrar filas con Rusia y sus aliados, como aseguran algunos observadores?
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«Xi Jinping está buscando posicionarse en esta guerra, intentando entender hasta dónde piensa Putin llegar. Y Lukashenko es un buen interlocutor para ello», analiza Samantha de Benderm, investigadora asociada del programa Rusia y Eurasia de Chatham House.Según explica a BBC Mundo, los presidentes chino y bielorruso se conocen bastante bien: «a Xi Jinping le gusta hablar con Lukashenko porque es probablemente el líder mundial que mejor conoce a Putin, así que le sirve de orientador para entender qué pasa por la mente del presidente ruso«.
Esto explicaría en parte el gran despliegue que ha hecho Pekín para la visita de Lukashenko, presidente de un país relativamente pequeño, aislado por Occidente debido a su régimen autoritario y su alianza con Rusia, y «del que nadie se preocupaba hace un año», señala De Benderm.
A China y Bielorrusia les unen también lazos económicos desde hace tiempo. Pekín ha hecho grandes inversiones en el país europeo en los últimos años, entre ellos un parque industrial que cuenta con una zona de libre comercio.
Además, el pasado septiembre, siete meses después del inicio de la guerra de Ucrania, Pekín elevó el estatus de su relación con Bielorrusia, a la que ahora describe como «asociación estratégica integral», un término muy poco habitual que solo había usado antes para definir a otro país: Pakistán.
Esto quiere decir que Bielorrusia ocupa un lugar muy alto en la jerarquía de relaciones internacionales de China, justo por debajo de Rusia, según un análisis de BBC Monitoring.
Ambos países, liderados por gobierno autoritarios, comparten, además, «una visión del mundo«, apunta De Benderm.
Lukashenko es el único presidente que ha tenido Bielorrusia desde que dejó de formar parte de la Unión Soviética y ha sido descrito por gobierno occidentales como «el último dictador de Europa».
La ONU ha documentado numerosos casos de tortura, y observadores internacionales aseguran que solo ganó limpiamente las primeras de las cinco elecciones consecutivas en las que se ha impuesto.
En China gobierna el Partido Comunista desde 1949 sin que se celebren elecciones democráticas.
Letra pequeña
Dentro de estos lazos comerciales, que la reciente visita del presidente bielorruso busca impulsar, Samantha de Benderm destaca una frase pronunciada por Lukashenko en su encuentro con Xi, donde subrayó el interés en profundizar la cooperación con China para, entre otras cosas, «la promoción de bienes y servicios a los mercados de países terceros«.
En caso de que, como asegura Estados Unidos, China esté planteándose vender armamento a Rusia, podría utilizar Bielorrusia como país de tránsito, y «este acuerdo le daría el marco legal necesario para hacerlo», advierte la investigadora.
China se ha convertido en el cuarto mayor exportador mundial de armas y, según Washington, empresas chinas ya han proporcionado «apoyo no letal» a Rusia.
Estados Unidos asegura que tiene información de que pronto también abastecerán a Moscú de «apoyo letal», algo que Pekín ha rechazado enérgicamente.
«No aceptamos el señalamiento de Estados Unidos a las relaciones entre China y Rusia, y mucho menos la coerción y la presión», dijo la semana pasada el portavoz del Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de China, Wang Wenbin.
Empresas chinas también han sido acusadas de suministrar a Rusia tecnología de doble uso, bienes que pueden usarse tanto para fines civiles como militares, como drones y chips semiconductores.
¿Qué apoyo dan a Rusia?
Minsk ha sido un aliado clave para Rusia desde el comienzo del conflicto, cuando permitió que Moscú usara la frontera bielorrusa con Ucrania para lanzar su ataque contra Kyiv, que finalmente fracasó.
Mientras tanto, China ha intentado parecer neutral al declarar su apoyo tanto al derecho a la soberanía como al de la seguridad nacional que son, respectivamente, los intereses de Ucrania y Rusia.Sin embargo, Pekín se ha negado a condenar a Moscú y, de manera indirecta, ha apoyado su empresa bélica, ya que los medios estatales chinos han propagado activamente la visión rusa sobre la guerra, según múltiples análisis.
A pesar de ello, diversos analistas coinciden en que ni China ni Bielorrusia tienen interés alguno en entrar en la guerra de Ucrania.
«Pekín está preocupado por que la situación de seguridad se descontrole en Eurasia«, explicó a BBC Mundo el profesor Rasmus Nilsson, de la Escuela de estudios eslavos y de Europa del este del University College de Londres (UCL).
Y Lukashenko, asegura la experta de Chatham House, «se encuentra bajo una enorme presión de Putin para que se involucre en la guerra».
Tanto al presidente bielorruso como al chino «les gustaría utilizar esta guerra para romper con la hegemonía de Estados Unidos en el mundo pero, a la vez, se sienten muy incómodos con la forma en la que se está desarrollando, con toda la violencia que se está viendo en el campo de batalla y la amenaza de Putin de usar armas nucleares», analiza Samantha de Benderm.
Campaña regional
Estados Unidos también se encuentra inmerso en su propia campaña diplomática en la región.
Su secretario de Estado, Antony Blinken ha estado esta semana de gira por Kazajistán y Uzbekistán, donde señaló que la guerra «había fomentado una profunda preocupación en toda la región» y enfatizó el compromiso de Estados Unidos con la soberanía nacional.»Al fin y al cabo, si un país poderoso está dispuesto a tratar de borrar las fronteras de un vecino soberano por la fuerza, ¿qué le impide hacer lo mismo con los demás? Los países de Asia Central entienden esto», dijo.
Los cinco países de Asia Central son antiguos miembros de la Unión Soviética que mantienen vínculos comerciales con Rusia y China.
Sin embargo, se han mantenido en gran medida neutrales durante la guerra, se han adherido a las sanciones occidentales y han expresado su inquietud por la invasión de Rusia a Ucrania, que también es un estado exsoviético.
Plan de paz
Durante su visita a Pekín, Lukashenko ha elogiado el plan de paz para Ucrania que ha presentado China y que ha sido acogido con desconfianza por Occidente.
El documento, que cuenta con 12 puntos, insta al respeto de la «soberanía de todos los países», pero no dice específicamente que Rusia deba retirar sus tropas de Ucrania que es, a día de hoy, la principal amenaza a la soberanía de este país.
Además, condena el uso de «sanciones unilaterales», una crítica implícita a los aliados occidentales de Ucrania.
El presidente ucraniano, Volodymyr Zelensky, ha asegurado estar de acuerdo con algunas partes del plan, del que, dice, es una señal de la voluntad de China de involucrarse.
Pekín, sin embargo, no ha respondido aún a la oferta de Zelensky de encontrarse con Xi para discutir cara a cara la propuesta china.
El miércoles, China y Bielorrusia «expresaron su profunda preocupación» sobre el conflicto y su «enorme interés por el restablecimiento de la paz en Ucrania lo más pronto posible», según informó la agencia estatal bielorrusa, Belta.
Hay que evitar que la situación degenere «en una confrontación global en la que no habrá ganadores», dijo Lukashenko, mientras que Xi pidió acabar con la «mentalidad de la Guerra Fría» y aseguró que los países deberían dejar de politizar la economía mundial y centrarse en una resolución pacífica.La retórica de Lukashenko, sin embargo, no siempre ha sido tan conciliadora.
Recientemente, en una rueda de prensa en Minsk antes de viajar a Moscú para reunirse con Putin, el presidente bielorruso volvió a advertir de que, si se cometía una agresión contra su país, estaba dispuesto a «luchar con los rusos por el territorio de Bielorrusia».
En caso de que un solo soldado entrara en su territorio, «la respuesta sería inmediata, y la guerra alcanzaría una escala completamente diferente».
Sin embargo, cuando a finales de diciembre un misil ucraniano aterrizó por error en territorio bielorruso, «la respuesta de Lukashenko fue la de minimizar su impacto«, afirma la analista de Chatham House, quien ve en su discurso más «retórica y postureo» que voluntad de actuar.
«Lukashenko sabe que se encuentra en una posición débil con respecto a Rusia. Existe una amenaza creíble de que Rusia quiera anexionarse Bielorrusia a medio plazo, y Lukashenko está jugando sus cartas lo mejor que puede para intentar evitarlo», opina De Benderm.
Con este acercamiento a China puede buscar también reducir su dependencia de Rusia y, quizás, aventura la experta, un «lugar seguro al que retirarse en caso de que las cosas no le vayan bien en Bielorrusia y sea derrocado en una nueva revuelta política».
Original de BBC
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