Joe Biden ha afianzado la senda proteccionista de Donald Trump con un gigantesco programa de incentivos a las empresas y consumo nacionales. El plan levanta ampollas entre sus aliados y amenaza con desatar una guerra comercial con la Unión Europea, que presentó otro como respuesta.
Por: Isable Valverde
El libre comercio vive sus horas más bajas desde el fin de la Segunda Guerra Mundial: Estados Unidos, arquitecto del orden liberal internacional, está afianzando su viraje hacia el proteccionismo. Comenzó con el Make America Great Again de Donald Trump, que trajo nuevos aranceles y la salida de acuerdos comerciales. Joe Biden ha consolidado esta deriva con planes de inversión masivos, trato preferencial a empresas nacionales y sanciones al sector tecnológico chino. Su objetivo es fomentar la producción y el consumo interno en un contexto global de tensiones comerciales y geopolíticas, pero para ello utiliza medios cada vez más polémicos.
Entre estos destaca la Inflation Reduction Act, una pieza legislativa de marcado carácter proteccionista firmada el pasado agosto que incluye subsidios que discriminan a empresas extranjeras. Esto ha terminado con la paciencia de la Unión Europea, que ha criticado lo que interpreta como un ataque a la arquitectura del sistema económico liberal. Pero Bruselas también ha dado un golpe en la mesa con su propio plan industrial para contrarrestar la ofensiva estadounidense.
Una lluvia de subsidios
La Inflation Reduction Act es uno de los mayores hitos de la Administración Biden. El plan, que también abarca impuestos para reducir el déficit, está dotado con 370.000 millones de dólares para estimular el crecimiento y el tejido industrial verde, mientras se mejora su competitividad a través de menores costes energéticos. Es el mayor compromiso contra el cambio climático de la historia estadounidense, y las ayudas beneficiarán en especial al sector de la automoción eléctrica, las energías renovables y la producción neutra en carbono.
Los subsidios son herramientas comunes en los programas económicos. Trump los desplegó para compensar a los agricultores por las pérdidas de la guerra comercial con China, mientras que Biden lo hizo en su Chips Act, la ley para incentivar la producción nacional de semiconductores con inversión pública e incentivos fiscales. Pero en esta ocasión han sido duramente criticadas en el extranjero. La Unión Europea, Japón y Corea del Sur han protestado contra la cláusula Buy American. Esta obliga a los consumidores estadounidenses a comprar productos que estén total o parcialmente fabricados en el país para beneficiarse de ciertas ayudas, como las deducciones fiscales a la compra de vehículos eléctricos.
Con esa cláusula, el plan de Biden pone en desventaja al resto de economías avanzadas. Por un lado, las ayudas fiscales hacen menos atractivas a las marcas extranjeras en el mercado estadounidense. Al mismo tiempo, los subsidios hacen que producir en Estados Unidos sea artificialmente más barato que en otros países, fomentando la fuga de inversiones industriales en el sector renovable. Los detractores del plan no podrán confiar en que un posible reemplazo presidencial en la Casa Blanca ponga fin a las ayudas estatales. A pesar de algunas diferencias entre demócratas y republicanos sobre la financiación del plan con subidas fiscales a las empresas, el proteccionismo se ha consolidado como punto en común entre ambos partidos.
La Unión Europea contraataca
El plan de Biden no ha sentado nada bien en Bruselas. La Unión Europea, que ya temía por su tejido industrial en un contexto de altos precios energéticos, teme ahora que sus ambiciones por convertirse en el hub global de la industria verde puedan verse truncadas. La Comisión ha sido muy dura con Washington, afirmando que varias provisiones del plan violan las normas de la Organización Mundial del Comercio y que las posibles represalias “ponen en peligro el sistema multilateral de comercio” en un momento crítico.
Por ahora, la respuesta se centra en agilizar los permisos para nuevos proyectos industriales y reformar las normas sobre las ayudas de Estado, diseñadas para prevenir que los países miembros rompan la competencia del mercado único con subsidios nacionales. El objetivo es reaccionar rápido y garantizar ayudas para evitar la fuga de empresas. Pero en el medio plazo Bruselas quiere pasar al ataque.
La Comisión Europea presentó el pasado 1 de febrero una nueva estrategia europea de inversiones en industrias verdes para contrarrestar el plan de Biden y hacer frente a la competencia china. Se trata del Green Deal Industrial Plan,centrado en cuidar a la industria verde con más financiación, menos burocracia, trabajadores más cualificados y cadenas de suministro críticas diversificadas. El plan cuenta por ahora con dos elementos estrella: normas sobre subsidios nacionales más relajadas y fijar objetivos de producción europea para determinadas tecnologías sostenibles con el fin de evitar dependencias excesivas.
Los detalles se concretarán en las próximas cumbres europeas, en las que Francia se perfila como la más ambiciosa. Como suele ser común en la Unión, el principal escollo será acordar la financiación. De momento, la creación de un Fondo de Soberanía Europea para catalizar las inversiones parece que será sufragado a través del presupuesto actual. Francia, Italia y España apoyarían la financiación con nueva deuda comunitaria, pero Alemania y los frugales del norte de Europa se oponen por ahora.
Incipiente guerra comercial, nueva etapa en la economía global
El plan de Biden puede hacer estallar una guerra comercial a base de subsidios con la Unión Europea y otros Estados liberales. Las esperanzas por evitarla residen en el grupo de trabajo establecido entre Washington y Bruselas en el que la Unión intenta arrancar a Washington excepciones a la cláusula Buy American de las que ya se benefician Canadá y México.
De no conseguirlas, el efecto dominó será difícil de evitar: el coste económico y político de dejar a la industria europea en desventaja competitiva sería demasiado alto. En el peor escenario, la guerra de subsidios transatlántica podría ir más allá y derivar en un conflicto comercial con aranceles a las importaciones estadounidenses que reciban ayudas. Pero es poco probable: supondría cruzar las líneas rojas de una Unión Europea que defiende el libre comercio. Además, la confrontación directa con Estados Unidos y no con el modelo económico chino, mucho más peligroso para los intereses industriales de la Unión, mandaría un mensaje contradictorio al sistema económico liberal.
Los próximos meses serán decisivos para conocer el alcance de las represalias, así como el daño de la estrategia estadounidense en el tejido industrial europeo. Pero la fuga de inversiones ya ha comenzado. Varias multinacionales ya han reubicado varios proyectos industriales a suelo estadounidense y otras piden que la Unión adopte medidas recíprocas para seguir siendo competitivas.
En cualquier caso, la retórica confrontacional no augura un buen futuro para la relación comercial transatlántica. Que sea Estados Unidos, bajo un Gobierno demócrata, el que introduzca subsidios discriminatorios preocupa no solo por su tamaño e impacto mundial, sino también por su rol de arquitecto del orden liberal internacional. El proteccionismo estadounidense, más que en ningún otro país, evidencia que el capitalismo global se adentra en un nuevo paradigma marcado por los intereses nacionales.
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