Por: Scott Mcdonald
El litio es una materia prima esencial en la transición energética. ¿Cuáles son los desafíos y las oportunidades de Chile, Argentina y Bolivia, que albergan cerca del 60% de las reservas mundiales de este metal?
Latinoamérica y el Caribe han experimentado distintos ciclos en relación con las materias primas, que han aumentado la importancia de la región en la economía global y han influido en su desarrollo socioeconómico. El rey azúcar se identifica con el Caribe tanto como el oro, la plata y, posteriormente, el estaño con Bolivia. En el siglo XXI está en alza el litio, un metal alcalino blando de color blanco plateado. Se considera uno de los llamados “metales limpios”, fundamentales para la gran transición energética del siglo XXI, el paso de los combustibles fósiles a las energías renovables. Sin él, el mundo de las baterías de larga duración, los vehículos eléctricos y las centrales eléctricas que no se alimentan con combustibles fósiles no es posible. Ahora que el planeta está tratando de hacer una revolución energética, se calcula que el Triángulo del litio de América Latina —Argentina, Bolivia y Chile— alberga cerca del 60% de las reservas mundiales de este metal.
La región minera de Latinoamérica y el Caribe es una de las más dinámicas del mundo, en la que intervienen compañías australianas, chinas, europeas, japonesas, rusas y estadounidenses junto con empresas locales muy competitivas. Las exportaciones de metales son una parte fundamental de las economías de toda la región, países como Brasil, Chile, Guyana, México, Perú y Surinam. Los gobiernos latinoamericanos son muy conscientes del valor de estas exportaciones y aprovechan la parte que les corresponde de esos ingresos para impulsar el crecimiento económico, generar empleo y mejorar las condiciones socioeconómicas. Ahora bien, lo difícil es encontrar el debido equilibrio entre utilizar capital y conocimientos extranjeros para desarrollar los recursos naturales y mantener el control de ellos. Argentina, Bolivia y Chile están lidiando hoy con este problema por el litio, que algunos consideran la clave para alcanzar un nuevo “El Dorado” y otros una posible repetición de la explotación a manos de extranjeros.
En este Triángulo del litio, la industria chilena de este elemento es la más madura y desarrollada. Las leyes chilenas establecen que el litio es un recurso estratégico y el Gobierno no autoriza concesiones privadas sino que permite “solo que el Estado, las empresas estatales o las empresas privadas operen asociadas con la Corporación de Fomento de la Producción (CORFO) para desarrollar el mineral”. Con esta legislación, no hay más que dos empresas —SQM y Albemarle (una empresa minera estadounidense)— que hayan obtenido licencias para la producción de litio.
Sin embargo, da la impresión de que el sector se ha estancado, puesto que no se han abierto minas nuevas en los últimos treinta años. Al mismo tiempo, Chile se enfrenta a una serie de problemas, como la resistencia de las comunidades locales —que se oponen al uso intensivo de agua en una región desértica— y varios escándalos, en algunos de los cuales han estado implicados SQM y Albemarle. Otro obstáculo para el sector chileno del litio es que el nuevo gobierno de izquierdas del presidente Gabriel Boric está decidido a crear una empresa estatal de este metal, que colaborará con empresas privadas y mantendrá el equilibrio entre las necesidades mineras y las de las comunidades locales y el ecosistema. Los intentos anteriores de nacionalización se abandonaron, pero ahora se prevé que la creación de esa empresa estatal sea un proceso largo, que incluya la búsqueda de socios, exploraciones, consultas y, llegado el momento, la construcción de las instalaciones necesarias. Lo que debe hacer Chile es clarificar su política de extracción de litio, para lo que tendrá que buscar, por un lado, el equilibrio entre la preocupación del Gobierno por el medio ambiente y los derechos de los indígenas y, por otro, la necesidad de generar crecimiento económico y una diversificación que permita no depender tanto del cobre.
Mientras Chile tiene dificultades para desarrollar su política del litio, Argentina es el país más abierto a las inversiones extranjeras en el desarrollo de su industria gracias a un enfoque más pragmático, que se caracteriza por un papel regulador del Estado relativamente ligero y unos impuestos bajos. En este sentido, Argentina ha adoptado una estrategia distinta a la de Chile. El litio no se considera un mineral estratégico que el Estado debe controlar, sino que el sistema legal argentino permite que las empresas lo exploren y lo produzcan mediante concesiones a perpetuidad siempre que cumplan determinadas normas de inversión. Con esta estrategia, Argentina ha conseguido atraer empresas extranjeras como las chinas Ganfeng Lithium y Zijin Mining, la canadiense Lithium Americas y la británica Rio Tinto Group.
Asimismo, Argentina es uno de los pocos países que están probando una nueva tecnología, la extracción directa de litio (EDL). La EDL podría transformar el sector con un método diferente al que domina la industria en la actualidad, un sencillo proceso de evaporación que se prolonga durante dos años para separar el litio del agua de las salinas y en el que se evaporan grandes cantidades de agua. El proceso EDL puede obtener el doble de litio y devolver gran parte del agua salada a su acuífero. Aunque todavía se trata de un proceso experimental, podría ser una revolución en la extracción de este metal.
Pero no a todos los argentinos les gusta el desarrollo del sector del litio; muchos están preocupados por la contaminación ambiental y por la distribución desigual de la riqueza procedente de sus ventas. Algunos incluso afirman que la llegada de empresas extranjeras de extracción de litio puede ser un “neocolonialismo disfrazado de revolución verde”.
El caso de Bolivia es diferente a los de Argentina y Chile. El país alberga las mayores reservas del mundo, pero exporta muy poco. Las inversiones extranjeras se miran con recelo por la historia de la minería boliviana, sometida a unas condiciones de trabajo brutales, la corrupción y los ciclos de auge y caída de las materias primas.
Durante el mandato del presidente Evo Morales (2006-2019), Bolivia se esforzó en impulsar el sector del litio pero, en general, los inversores consideraban que el país no era terreno favorable, sobre todo para las empresas occidentales. No obstante, las autoridades fueron convenciéndose de que este metal podía ser una nueva fuente de exportaciones, aunque prefería establecer una matriz estatal de que controlara desde la extracción de litio hasta la fabricación de baterías, con la esperanza de que sacara al país andino de su papel tradicional de extractor de materias primas.
Durante su mandato, Bolivia negoció dos acuerdos de empresas mixtas, uno con la alemana ACI Systems para producir hidróxido de litio y construir una fábrica de baterías destinadas a coches eléctricos y otro con la china Xinjiang TBEA para producir este metal a partir de dos salares. Pero en 2019 estallaron varias protestas para exigir que las dos empresas cedieran al país mayores derechos y unas condiciones de pago mejores. Morales revocó el contrato con ACI Systems. El periodo de inestabilidad política en 2019 y 2020 dejó la estrategia del litio a la deriva.
Sin embargo, las cosas están cambiando. El presidente Luis Arce, elegido en 2020, ha indicado que quiere que su país se convierta en “la capital mundial del litio” y suministre el 40% de este metal a escala global para 2030. Para conseguirlo, el Gobierno está negociando con un puñado de empresas, entre ellas la rusa Uranium One, el fabricante chino de baterías CATL, la start-up estadounidense Lilac Solutions (respaldada por el fabricante alemán de automóviles BMW y Breakthrough Energy Ventures, de Bill Gates) y otras tres empresas chinas (entre ellas, Xinjiang TBEA, cuyo acuerdo anterior parece haber desaparecido discretamente). Bolivia tiene posibilidades de convertirse en esa capital global del litio que desea Arce. Lo difícil es alcanzar un consenso nacional sobre si centrarse en atraer y gestionar inversiones extranjeras directas es la vía más adecuada para el país. Hasta ahora, las aspiraciones de Bolivia no han sido más que eso, aspiraciones. Hay que hacer más cosas para que las exportaciones de litio o baterías sean una realidad.
Este metal entraña riesgos y recompensas para los países del Triángulo. Hasta ahora, cada uno de ellos ha emprendido una vía distinta para desarrollarlo. Argentina es el que ha avanzado más y que está aprovechando la experiencia y el capital extranjeros. La industria chilena tiene todavía un sitio importante en los mercados mundiales, pero su política sigue sin estar clara. En cuanto a Bolivia, es el país más prometedor a la hora de controlar el proceso de producción —incluida la fabricación de baterías—, pero su modelo estatista está dando resultados mediocres. Argentina, Bolivia y Chile tienen algo en común: la economía global vuelve a llamar a su puerta y llamará aún más a medida que la gran transición energética cobre impulso. Y con ello se vuelve cada vez más urgente decidir cómo van a participar o si van a participar, sobre todo a medida que la geopolítica relacionada con la energía se acelere.
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