Según el informe de estimaciones económicas de la OCDE de septiembre de 2022, las perspectivas de la economía global se han desacelerado más de lo previsto debido al impacto de la guerra, el endurecimiento generalizado de la política monetaria, debido a una inflación mayor de lo esperado y a la política China de Cero Covid-19 que impuso cierres obligatorios en su economía.
La OCDE está a favor de nuevas subidas de tipos en la mayoría de los países para garantizar que las presiones inflacionarias se reduzcan de manera duradera.
Conclusiones principales del informe:
La economía mundial se está desacelerando más de lo anticipado
Las previsiones de crecimiento económico mundial están por debajo del ritmo previsto antes de la guerra. Se espera un crecimiento anual del 3% en 2022 que continuará desacelerándose hasta el 2,2% en 2023.
La inflación se ha generalizado
Más de la mitad de las partidas que influyen en el dato de inflación muestran subidas de precios superiores al 4 % en Reino Unido, Estados Unidos y la eurozona.
La inflación disminuirá, pero se mantendrá en niveles elevados
La OCDE estima que la inflación general alcance su punto máximo en el trimestre actual en la mayoría de las principales economías y disminuya en el cuarto trimestre y durante 2023 en la mayoría de los países del G20. Aun así, la inflación anual en 2023 se mantendrá muy por encima de los objetivos de los bancos centrales en casi todas partes.
Fuente: Banco Santander
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