Más allá del control de precios de la energía, existe un cambio de paradigma en Occidente. Ahora la maximización de la eficiencia y los beneficios no son la prioridad. Está surgiendo el convencimiento de que es necesaria una estrategia económica impulsada desde el sector público.
El paradigma de la política económica ha girado lentamente desde el estallido de la burbuja inmobiliaria hasta apuntar en 2022 hacia una dirección muy diferente. La palabra clave es “intervencionismo”, un anatema convertido en cotidiano hace apenas tres lustros. El capitalismo sin límites expió sus pecados tras la quiebra de Lehman Brothers haciendo hueco al sector público en los procesos de toma de decisiones. Pero tras la pandemia y la invasión de Ucrania la planificación estatal ha adquirido un nivel superior.
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El fracaso de la autorregulación del libre mercado ha abierto la puerta a la economía guiada por la estrategia política. En este contexto se explican los millonarios planes de inversión en Estados Unidos, Europa, Canadá, Australia… El sector público tiene ahora la misión de impulsar las prioridades sociales, como son la reindustrialización, la transición ecológica, el control de precios o la garantía del suministro.
El control de precios de la energía ya está extendido por toda Europa. Francia fue el primer país en aprobarlo en otoño de 2021, antes incluso del comienzo de la guerra en Ucrania. Se trata de un control de precios parcial, ya que el Estado sufraga la parte de la factura que supera el tope fijado. Y esta política ha demostrado ser eficaz, ya que ha conseguido frenar la traslación de los precios energéticos al resto de la cesta de la compra. El IPC de Francia es el más bajo de toda la Unión Europea, sin que haya sobrepasado el 7% en tasa interanual en ningún momento de la actual fase inflacionista.
Alemania, que en este viaje va con retraso, ha anunciado que reformará su sistema eléctrico con carácter retroactivo. Así lo ha explicado recientemente el ministro de Economía y Protección Climática, Robert Habeck, quien busca limitar los precios de las facturas para los hogares. La “excepción ibérica” ha demostrado que es posible reducir el precio de la electricidad en el mercado mayorista, y ahora otros países como Alemania siguen estos pasos. De hecho, la propia Comisión Europea estudia modificar el actual sistema de fijación de precios marginal, que se introdujo precisamente para incentivar la inversión empresarial en las energías renovables. Sin embargo, con el precio del gas disparado, lo que sucede es una sobrerretribución que pagan hogares y empresas. Europa está cambiando su visión del sistema eléctrico y ahora piensa que la transición no debe realizarse con estímulos al sector privado, sino con grandes planes de inversión pública.
En Reino Unido, la nueva primera ministra, Liz Truss, ya ha anunciado que mantendrá y extenderá el control de precios a la energía durante seis meses. En uno de los países más liberales del mundo comienza a calar la idea del intervencionismo. Una encuesta de YouGov revela que la mitad de los votantes tories y casi el 80% de los laboristas son partidarios de nacionalizar empresas energéticas. Todo para poner los medios de producción al servicio de la sociedad.
El sector público también tiene un peso creciente en el tejido productivo energético. Francia está inmersa en la toma de control de la gran eléctrica del país, EDF, mientras Alemania acaba de anunciar que nacionalizará Uniper, el gigante importador de gas que está soportando pérdidas de miles de millones de euros. Esta parte de la cadena del gas (importadoras y distribuidoras) sufre una gran presión en sus cuentas públicas y muchas necesitarán ayudas públicas para sobrevivir. Pero la nacionalización implica ir un paso más allá. El objetivo no es solo garantizar la supervivencia financiera de empresas estratégicas, sino también controlar su estrategia empresarial. Esto es, tomar el mando de los medios de producción. Habrá que ver si esta fórmula intervencionista tiene éxito a largo plazo, pero lo que sí es evidente es la dirección a la que se ha encaminado Europa, convencida de que el libre mercado choca en muchas ocasiones con los deseos de la sociedad, máxime en una situación extremadamente compleja e incierta como la actual, en la que algunas empresas están generando grandes beneficios gracias a la subida de precios derivada de la guerra en Ucrania.
Más allá del control energético, existe un cambio de paradigma, transversal a las diferentes ideologías, en Occidente. Ahora la maximización de la eficiencia y los beneficios no son el objetivo prioritario. Está surgiendo el convencimiento de que es necesaria una estrategia económica impulsada desde el sector público, ya sea con el control directo de los medios de producción o con el establecimiento de incentivos y regulaciones que animen al sector privado en esa dirección. Por ejemplo, la desregulación y la globalización industrial promovió la deslocalización de la producción de forma acelerada durante las últimas tres décadas. La consecuencia ha sido la desindustrialización de los países, el aumento del desempleo y el malestar social. Y más reciente, los problemas de suministros.
El cambio de paradigma se resume en el eslogan America First de Donald Trump, que supone situar la política económica al servicio de los objetivos estratégicos del país, en oposición a la liberalización que imperó desde los años ochenta.
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