Por: INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICS AND PEACE
La guerra de Ucrania, el aumento del respaldo a la OTAN, la remilitarización de Europa y las tensiones crecientes entre Occidente y potencias orientales como Rusia y China han dejado claramente al descubierto la vulnerabilidad de la logística mundial.
Las líneas de suministro global ya se pusieron a prueba en 2020 y 2021 como consecuencia de la pandemia de la Covid-19 y las medidas administrativas promulgadas para frenarla. La guerra de Ucrania ha trastocado los mercados mundiales del petróleo y los alimentos, puesto que ha afectado a la producción de productos energéticos y agrarios, pero la forma de transportar esos productos hasta los consumidores.
Los conflictos en zonas de gran concentración de líneas logísticas pueden tener consecuencias negativas porque aumentan los costes del combustible o de los seguros, retrasar el tránsito de bienes y mercancías o interrumpir directamente el tráfico comercial. Desde el estallido de la guerra, el comercio en el Mar Negro ha sufrido graves obstáculos. Otra zona delicada —que combina un gran tráfico comercial y tensiones geopolíticas— es el mar del sur de China.
Además de la producción de alimentos y petróleo, la guerra también ha trastocado la distribución a través del Mar Negro. Ucrania envía el 98% de su cereal para la exportación a través de los puertos marítimos, y casi todo el flujo portuario del país pasa especialmente por los puertos de Pivdennyi, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Chornomorsk y Mariúpol. Las fuerzas rusas amenazan las zonas en torno a Odessa, Mykolaiv y Chornomorsk, y la actividad en los puertos se ha resentido. Mariúpol también ha sido centro de los combates y ha caído bajo control ruso. Está muy cerca de las provincias de Donetsk y Luhansk, que libran una guerra desde 2014. Son lugares importantes desde los que Ucrania envía cereales y petróleo a Turquía o, a través del estrecho del Bósforo (Turquía), hacia el mar de Mármara y el mar Egeo y hacia Egipto, África subsahariana, Bangladesh y Pakistán.
En 2021, las exportaciones de productos ucranianos alcanzaron los 68.000 millones de dólares, según el Ministerio de Economía del país. Una parte importante de esas exportaciones ha sufrido desde el estallido de la guerra. Las exportaciones de Rusia —alrededor de 211.000 millones de dólares en 2021— han disminuido en 2022 como consecuencia del conflicto y las sanciones impuestas a Moscú.
La guerra en Ucrania, y en concreto el hundimiento del Moskva, pone aún más al descubierto el carácter cambiante de la guerra. El Moskva, que era el buque insignia de la Flota del Mar Negro rusa, fue presuntamente blanco de un misil de crucero Neptune que se lanzó después de que se utilizaran drones para desconcertar a los sistemas de radar del barco.
Seguridad y logística en el mar del sur de China
El mar del sur de China es una de las regiones más transitadas por el transporte de mercancías y recursos y absorbe entre el 20 % y el 33 % del comercio global. Hay numerosas rutas marítimas, pero existen seis cuellos de botella importantes, uno de los cuales es el estrecho de Malaca. Si se observa las rutas marítimas mundiales en el Indo-Pacífico en relación con los puertos estadounidenses y chinos, queda claro que hay varios lugares críticos que ponen de relieve las cadenas de suministro pero también la interdependencia. Por ejemplo, en 2021, Apple tuvo que disminuir la producción del iPhone 13 debido a los cuellos de botella en la cadena de suministro. La globalización ha generado vínculos logísticos complejos: por ejemplo, el iPhone utiliza piezas producidas en 43 países distintos, repartidos por seis continentes.
En lo esencial, existen señales evidentes de que la región va a tener una influencia decisiva en el futuro del orden internacional basado en normas, la base sobre la que reposa la prosperidad global, puesto que China sigue siendo el taller del mundo.
En cuanto a la posición de las principales bases navales chinas y estadounidenses existe la posibilidad de que haya grupos terroristas cuyo objetivo sea socavar la paz y la prosperidad de la región. Por ejemplo, en 2010, el almirante Abdul Aziz Jaafar, jefe de la armada de Malasia, advirtió que había pruebas creíbles de que varios grupos terroristas querían atentar contra los petroleros en el estrecho de Malaca y frente a la costa de Singapur. El estrecho de Malaca, de 900 kilómetros de longitud, es una de las vías marítimas más transitadas del mundo, con más de 50.000 buques que lo atraviesan anualmente, pero los 2,7 kilómetros que tiene de apertura en su punto más estrecho lo hacen muy vulnerable.
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