Parte II: ¿Cómo están emparejadas China y Taiwán?

Por Kyle Mizokami y Rafael Sánchez Casademont

Durante décadas, Taiwán estuvo relativamente bien protegida de invasiones. El Estrecho de Taiwán, de aproximadamente 160 kilómetros de ancho, era un obstáculo insuperable para la República Popular, que carecía de la riqueza para financiar la Armada y las fuerzas de transporte marítimo necesarias para hacer posible una invasión. Incluso si China pudiera atravesar el Estrecho de Taiwán, las fuerzas aéreas y navales de la República de China, tecnológicamente superiores, terminarían rápido con la fuerza de invasión. Todavía a principios de la década de 2000, tal invasión se describió burlonamente como la «natación de un millón de hombres» y casi con seguridad habría terminado en un tiro al aire, especialmente si intervinieran las fuerzas estadounidenses.

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A principios de la década de 1990, China abrió sus puertas a la fabricación extranjera, lo que dio inicio a una asombrosa transformación económica. Aunque el gasto en defensa de China como proporción del presupuesto nacional se mantuvo igual, el presupuesto en sí se disparó, lo que resultó en más de dos décadas de aumentos en el gasto en defensa de dos dígitos. Mientras tanto, el gasto militar de Taiwán se mantuvo más o menos estable.

Las Fuerzas Armadas de la República de China cuentan con 165.000 soldados en servicio activo respaldados por 1,6 millones de reservistas. Su armada y fuerza aérea comprenden la primera línea de defensa de Taiwán. En laa fuerza aérea vuela la última y más moderna versión del F-16 Fighting Falcon, el F-16V, así como los cazas Mirage 2000 y el caza IDF producido localmente. También tienen mayor experiencia frente a las fuerzas militares del continente, interceptando regularmente aviones de la Fuerza Aérea del Ejército Popular de Liberación que vuelan cerca de la isla.

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Mientras tanto, la armada de Taiwán se está alejando de una flota centrada en barcos más grandes del tamaño de un destructor a catamaranes armados con misiles más pequeños, barcos más adecuados para hundir embarcaciones anfibias que intentan cruzar el Estrecho. La marina también está desarrollando su propio submarino de ataque para reemplazar cuatro submarinos antiguos, incluidos dos que datan de la Segunda Guerra Mundial.

El Ejército de la República de China (ROC), con 130.000, está encargado de resistir una invasión sobre el terreno. Está totalmente mecanizado y puede aprovechar la moderna red de carreteras de Taiwán. Una de las principales debilidades es la falta de tanques modernos que puedan usarse para contraatacar y expulsar a los invasores hacia el mar. La República de China compró recientemente 108 nuevos tanques M1A2T Abrams de fabricación estadounidense, y el primero entrará en servicio este 2022.

Mientras tanto, el Ejército Popular de Liberación de 2,1 millones de efectivos se encuentra al otro lado del estrecho y está más preparado que nunca para atacar. Las Fuerzas Terrestres del Ejército Popular de Liberación (PLAGF), la Armada del Ejército Popular de Liberación (PLAN), la Fuerza Aérea del Ejército Popular de Liberación (PLAAF) y el Cuerpo de Marines de la Armada del Ejército Popular de Liberación (PLANMC), también se han beneficiado de una campaña completa de revisión y modernización. Ahora, muchas de esas fuerzas son tecnológicamente equivalentes a sus contrapartes occidentales. Los equipos que datan de la década de 1960, por ejemplo, han sido archivados y reemplazados por versiones modernas, a menudo desarrolladas por la propia industria de defensa de China.

En el aire, la PLAAF tiene una gran ventaja. Los casi 300 combatientes de Taiwán serían superados en número por los 1.500 combatientes modernos del continente. Este total incluye 60-70 cazas Chengdu J-20 (el primer caza furtivo de quinta generación de China), así como otros cazas J-11, J-16 y J-30 caseros, además de los Su-27 y Su-27 de fabricación rusa. La República Popular China solo podía enviar tantos aviones al combate como los aeródromos locales podían manejar, pero podía reponer las pérdidas de combate con relativa rapidez. Las defensas aéreas chinas, como el sistema de misiles tierra-aire S-400 de fabricación rusa, también amenazarán a los cazas taiwaneses, con el alcance para interceptar objetivos sobre el propio Taiwán.

En el mar, Beijing es aún más poderosa. Las Flotas Este y Sur de la Armada del Ejército Popular de Liberación son las dos flotas que llevarían a cabo una invasión anfibia. Juntas, las dos flotas incluyen 34 submarinos de ataque, 41 fragatas, 23 destructores, seis grandes barcos anfibios y 45 barcos medianos y de desembarco de tanques. La fuerza de invasión se aumentarían con transbordadores de automóviles comerciales entrenados para lanzar embarcaciones de asalto anfibio cerca de la costa.

La fuerza de invasión real estaría encabezada por ocho brigadas anfibias PLANMC de aproximadamente 40,000 efectivos. Las fuerzas blindadas, mecanizadas y de operaciones especiales de las Fuerzas Terrestres aterrizarían para reforzar la fuerza de invasión una vez que las cabezas de playa y las instalaciones portuarias estuvieran seguras. La fuerza aérea transportaría seis brigadas de paracaidistas y una brigada de fuerzas de operaciones especiales en helicóptero, y traería aviones de transporte Y-20 detrás de las líneas de la República de China, capturando objetivos clave.

China mantiene un gran inventario de misiles balísticos y misiles de crucero de corto, mediano y largo alcance. Los misiles, controlados por las Fuerzas de Cohetes del Ejército Popular de Liberación, serían disparados tanto desde lanzadores terrestres móviles como desde bombarderos H-6. Cientos de misiles, cada uno con una ojiva explosiva convencional con un alto grado de precisión, con un peso de media tonelada o más, atacarían objetivos militares y económicos en Taiwán desde el comienzo de la invasión.

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