El profesor Iván Ernesto Gatón, reconocido analista internacional, aseguró ayer que la invasión de Rusia a Ucrania es “una tragedia para toda la familia humana” y dijo que los líderes políticos no parecen estar a la altura que exige el conflicto, así se abrió «la caja de Pandora de muchas desgracias».
Al dictar la conferencia titulada «Guerra Rusia-Ucrania: Impacto en América Latina», coordinada por el Movimiento Periodístico Convergencia en la Biblioteca Nacional Pedro Henríquez Ureña, Gatón advirtió que la guerra podría desatar una catástrofe económica para América Latina, dado el alto nivel de inflación generada por el conflicto armado.
«La guerra de Ucrania oscurece el horizonte económico en América Latina, por los efectos que tendrá en los precios de las materias primas, alimentos y energía, sumado a la presión inflacionaria heredada del Covid-19. Estos factores se combinan para generar una crisis de proporciones no vistas desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial”, dijo.
El experto indicó que, según la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), habrá más inflación, y esto afectará negativamente la tasa de crecimiento de América Latina.
También explicó que Rusia y Ucrania son los principales proveedores de trigo, con un 29% combinado de las exportaciones mundiales, la mayoría de las cuales pasan por los puertos del Mar Negro.
“Ucrania es uno de los cuatro principales exportadores de maíz del mundo. El alza de los granos se traduce en un aumento de los precios de productos básicos como el pan, la pasta y la carne de pollo. En cuanto a los fertilizantes, Rusia es un importante productor de fertilizantes potásicos, fosfatados y nitrogenados, es decir nutrientes para cultivos y suelos, produciendo el 13% del total mundial”, afirmo.
De paso, destacó que la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) ha advertido, en voz de su secretario general, Antonio Guterres, sobre un posible colapso del sistema alimentario mundial.
Además, “el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) indica que el crecimiento de América Latina caería de 2,1% a 1,2% en 2022. En 2023 sería de -0,4%, en lugar de 2,4%, y se recuperaría en 2024 a 1,3%. %, en lugar del 2,2%, mientras que el PIB elevará la ratio de endeudamiento.
Gatón señaló que la guerra ya está haciendo estragos en el bolsillo de los latinoamericanos, y que «podría tener un impacto económico tan desastroso que podría desestabilizar la paz social».
De hecho, señaló que “en algunos países de la región se han iniciado protestas por la escalada inflacionaria provocada por la guerra”, mientras que “el Fondo Monetario Internacional prevé que esta situación de inestabilidad social continuará”.
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“Un hecho importante a resaltar para República Dominicana sería el efecto de la guerra en Haití, que se prolonga desde hace mucho tiempo con una crisis social y económica latente, que se ha ido agudizando por el nefasto panorama que atraviesa el país desde que sufrió el fatídico terremoto del 12 de enero de 2010”, dijo Gatón.
Agregó que algunos países latinoamericanos son importadores netos de alimentos, como es el caso del triángulo norte centroamericano, Guatemala, Honduras y El Salvador, los países del Caribe Oriental; la OECS está compuesta por Antigua y Barbuda, San Cristóbal y Nieves, Montserrat, Anguila, Islas Vírgenes Británicas, Dominica, Santa Lucía, San Vicente y las Granadinas, Granada, Martinica y Guadalupe. –
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