Por: Alex Fergusson
En boca de muchos analistas políticos y formadores de opinión, locales y externos, se ha vuelto frecuente el razonamiento según el cual la transición a la democracia en Venezuela no ha sido posible por el apoyo político, financiero y militar de los llamados “aliados” del gobierno. Específicamente: Rusia, China, Irán, Turquía, Cuba y Nicaragua. En realidad, creo que el asunto merece una mirada más profunda.
Ciertamente, el apoyo político de estos países es un factor que no se debe minimizar, ya que tienen un denominador común: “El enemigo de mi enemigo es mi amigo”. A partir de ahí, cada uno tiene sus propios intereses. El apoyo militar lo comparten Rusia e Irán, ya que representa un buen negocio para ambos y en el caso de Rusia, ahora es una pieza de ajedrez que juega con Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea en su conflicto por Ucrania, que, por cierto, ya empezó a contar; para Irán, también es un elemento mediático que fortalece la idea de que “no están solos” o aislados internacionalmente. En el caso de Turquía, las grandes operaciones comerciales y de intermediación financiera son motivo suficiente.
Para los demás, especialmente Cuba y Nicaragua, Venezuela no ha sido otra cosa que una buena fuente de recursos financieros para su supervivencia, ante el fracaso de sus economías. Por su parte, China está interesada en aprovechar la oportunidad para hacer negocios, pero principalmente para apoderarse de los recursos naturales del país, particularmente el Coltán y el Oro, ya que son minerales estratégicos en sus planes de dominación económica del mundo, a cambio de la gigantesca deuda que hemos contraído con ellos.
Sin embargo, cabe aclarar que, salvo el caso de Cuba, cuya injerencia en las decisiones políticas venezolanas es tan notable como la cantidad de dinero y beneficios que obtiene a cambio, el apoyo del resto de países aliados se reduce prácticamente a la declarativa, a su uso como peón en su propio juego de intereses, a la demanda de apoyo e injerencia en las decisiones políticas de los organismos multilaterales.
Así, mientras el gobierno nacional siga satisfaciendo sus necesidades e intereses, aun a costa del sufrimiento que sufrimos, seguirá el apoyo político de sus aliados; En consecuencia, estamos ante una alianza condicionada e incierta, sobre todo por las tremendas debilidades que ha comenzado a mostrar el gobierno y su partido, sobre todo por las luchas internas por el “botín y el poder” que se han desatado.
Por otro lado, estoy convencido de que, más allá de la geopolítica, el principal apoyo del gobierno y otro de los mayores obstáculos para lograr la transición democrática en Venezuela es el papel que jugaron, al menos desde 2016, las empresas transnacionales, con sus cuantiosas inversiones respaldadas por sus socios políticos en cuarenta países que, curiosamente, se autodenominan democráticos y se tiran de los pelos por la oposición.
Mientras expresan “oficialmente” su apoyo a la dirigencia opositora y al retorno a la democracia, tras bambalinas favorecen e incluso negocian la participación de sus grandes empresas en áreas importantes de la economía nacional. Alimentan el flujo de capital y la disponibilidad de moneda fuerte, que luego el gobierno usa para mantenerse en pie y crear la ilusión de que la economía está mejorando, porque los dólares circulan libremente, lo que, dicho sea de paso, parece que así será no durará mucho o se reducirá con la imposición de impuestos de hasta el 20% sobre todas las transacciones importantes en moneda extranjera, que acaba de aprobar.
Un caso emblemático es el de los Estados Unidos de América y su relación con Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). Mientras se hace evidente la incapacidad de la empresa española Repsol y la rusa Rosneft para mantener sus operaciones en la Faja Petrolífera del Orinoco, ahora acrecentada por las sanciones contra el gobierno ruso por la invasión de Ucrania, el gobierno estadounidense renueva cada año la autorización de funcionamiento y refuerza la participación de Chevron, que es la que está produciendo gran parte del poco petróleo que se vende.
Recientes conversaciones entre representantes del gobierno de Estados Unidos y el gobierno de Venezuela apuntan en esa dirección.
Las industrias alimenticias, farmacéutica, de maquinaria industrial, minera y muchas otras en la Unión Europea, Canadá y Estados Unidos están montando la misma ola. Se han aprovechado de los privilegios, exenciones tributarias, pago de aduanas y otros beneficios financieros y fiscales que ha establecido el gobierno venezolano para facilitar su operación en el país, contribuyendo así a la ficción de una burbuja de bienestar que solo beneficia a unos pocos. Los datos de la última encuesta socioeconómica realizada así lo indican.
Venezuela hoy es un país de 3 millones de habitantes que producen y pagan impuestos; los otros 21 millones sobreviven de las remesas enviadas por los seis millones que emigraron, de la recaudación de dólares, de algún otro emprendimiento personal, o de donaciones gubernamentales.
Por supuesto, y finalmente, el intento de dar cuenta de las dificultades de un proceso de transición a la democracia en Venezuela sería incompleto si no incluyera el daño que hizo y sigue haciendo, la situación de fragmentación de la dirigencia opositora. Sus efectos están ahí y son bien visibles.
Pero no se equivoque. El problema no es la falta de unidad; el pueblo de la oposición está unido en su deseo de acabar con un régimen autoritario, corrupto y depredador, al igual que la mayoría de los líderes políticos, como quedó claro en las elecciones autonómicas de principios de año, en la reciente coyuntura con el Referéndum Revocatorio y rechazo al apoyo brindado al gobierno de Putin en su conflicto con Ucrania y el mundo.
Internamente, el principal problema político sigue siendo la baja visibilidad del liderazgo, es decir, la capacidad de integrar a quienes comparten un mismo propósito, vengan de donde vengan, para generar suficiente confianza, inspirar y motivar, para poder orientar al pueblo de oposición a través de un discurso sincero y por la definición de acciones viables que nos permitan avanzar en el camino hacia el cambio y la libertad.
Fuente: PolitiKa UCAB
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