Rusia pagó por primera vez en rublos su deuda externa en dólares. Dado que los estatutos de bonos en realidad no lo permiten, este sería el primer paso hacia un incumplimiento. ¿Pero es un default?
Moscú argumenta que se trata de una situación «artificial». Rusia es solvente, pero las sanciones imposibilitan las transferencias de dólares. Hace unas semanas, el Kremlin jugó a lo seguro: Vladimir Putin emitió un decreto presidencial que permitiría a las instituciones financieras liquidar pasivos en el exterior también en rublos, en lugar de en la moneda extranjera respectiva. Eso es precisamente lo que sucedió, y ahora, la moneda rusa, respaldada por varias medidas del Kremlin que distorsionan el mercado, está volviendo a los niveles anteriores a la guerra en Ucrania.
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Eso es porque el Ministerio de Finanzas de Rusia pagó el miércoles (06.04.2022) por primera vez su deuda externa en rublos en lugar de dólares. Se trata de pagos de eurobonos por casi 650 millones de dólares, el equivalente a unos 600 millones de euros. En realidad, esa suma debería haberse pagado en dólares. El trasfondo es que el banco corresponsal estadounidense responsable se negó a transferir el pago en moneda estadounidense, otra medida de las sanciones contra Rusia.
La falta de pago no es lo mismo que la quiebra
«Los acreedores podrían interpretar eso como que Rusia no ha transferido el pago», dice Alexander Libmann, del Instituto para Europa del Este de la Universidad Libre de Berlín. Sin embargo, esto no es lo mismo que declararse en quiebra, es decir, morosos por falta de pago. “El concepto de quiebra implica que no se puede pagar por razones estructurales. Pero eso no se aplica a Rusia, ya que las finanzas estatales de ese país eran relativamente estables antes de la guerra en Ucrania. Pero el problema es que la estabilidad de las finanzas de Moscú, por otro lado, no puede interpretarse independientemente de las sanciones, añade.
En cualquier caso, el Gobierno de Moscú pretende entender la falta de pago de la deuda en la moneda prevista de otra forma: el portavoz del Kremlin, Dimitri Peskov, explicó que no hay razón para la quiebra porque Rusia tiene todos los recursos necesarios para pagar su deuda externa. Lo que ha sucedido es que cantidades significativas de reservas de divisas rusas han sido «congeladas» y, por lo tanto, bloqueadas. Si esta situación continuara, Rusia se vería obligada a cambiar al pago en rublos. Solo si esos pagos en rublos también fueron bloqueados se podría hablar de una «quiebra artificial».
Las agencias de calificación ven el pago en rublos como falta de pago
De hecho, algunos analistas ven la situación actual más como un supuesto «incumplimiento técnico» que como un incumplimiento real. Sobre todo, uno que afecta al Kremlin solo hasta cierto punto. «Desde el punto de vista ruso, eso no es necesariamente un problema, al menos a corto plazo», dijo Patrick Heinisch, analista senior de Rusia en el banco regional de Hesse y Thuringia Helaba. «Lo que pasa es que el gobierno ruso ya está excluido del mercado de capitales occidental por las sanciones. En cualquier caso, no puede emitir nuevos bonos de deuda, por lo que la calificación es secundaria». A pesar de ello, las grandes agencias de calificación crediticia ya han anunciado que interpretarán los pagos en rublos como un incumplimiento.
Pero todavía hay algo que amortiguaría la caída de la morosidad, en caso de que se produjera, ya que, desde el primer impago, comienza un plazo de 30 días en los que Rusia aún podría hacer frente a sus obligaciones de pago en dólares. En principio, eso también debería ser posible porque Rusia recibe muchos cientos de millones de dólares todos los días en ingresos diarios por la venta de petróleo y gas. Solo que Moscú podría no querer usarlos para pagar su deuda externa.
Calma en los mercados
Esto es precisamente a lo que apunta Estados Unidos, dice Patrick Heinisch: «En última instancia, quiere obligar a Rusia a utilizar las ganancias de las ventas de petróleo y gas para pagar su deuda externa, de modo que esos ingresos ya no estén disponibles para financiar la guerra.
El miércoles, la portavoz de la Casa Blanca, Jen Psaki, dijo que Moscú ahora tiene la opción de disolver lentamente sus reservas o declarar la bancarrota estatal.
Además de todo esto, si Rusia fuera a la quiebra, esto no tendría un impacto global, ya que, precisamente, sería un default técnico. Además, la participación de Rusia en los mercados financieros mundiales es manejable. La directora del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Kristalina Georgieva, describió la participación de los bancos internacionales en Rusia como «definitivamente sin importancia sistémica». Según el Bundesbank, Rusia debe unos 6.000 millones de euros a los bancos alemanes y 7.500 millones de euros a filiales extranjeras. Eso corresponde al 0,4 por ciento del monto total de los préstamos externos de los bancos alemanes.
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