Por: Gwendolyn Sasse
Zelensky parece dispuesto a aceptar un estatus neutral para Ucrania a cambio de fuertes garantías de seguridad. Pero sin la voluntad política necesaria por parte de Rusia, un acuerdo mutuamente aceptable ahora está fuera del alcance.
Después de casi tres semanas de conversaciones a distancia, el 29 de marzo se reanudaron las negociaciones cara a cara entre Ucrania y Rusia. Tuvieron lugar en Estambul, convirtiendo al presidente turco, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, en el principal mediador internacional, al menos por ahora. Como era de esperar, Erdoğan proclamó progreso al final de las conversaciones para mantener el impulso. Las delegaciones de Ucrania y Rusia también se refirieron a los avances y la posibilidad de un eventual acuerdo de paz. Pero esto es todo lo lejos que ha llegado.
La delegación rusa trató de presentar la idea de una reunión directa entre el presidente ucraniano, Volodymyr Zelensky, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, como un compromiso político, y el plan para reducir la actividad militar en torno a Kiev, como un compromiso militar.
Es claro que lo primero no es una concesión, sino simplemente la constatación de un hecho, ya que los presidentes serán los árbitros finales de las condiciones de cualquier plan de paz. La segunda parece ser una retórica en gran medida vacía, ya que no ha habido una reducción inmediata de la acción militar, sino más bien un reagrupamiento de fuerzas. Nos enfrentamos a una necesidad, más que a un compromiso por parte de las fuerzas armadas rusas.
El presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, se apresuró a señalar la falta de voluntad de Rusia para negociar. La delegación ucraniana, así como su presidente y el ministro de Asuntos Exteriores, han tratado de ser más optimistas. El elemento crítico en las negociaciones hasta la fecha ha sido el concepto de “neutralidad”. Ambas partes lo interpretan de manera diferente. Además de que Ucrania renuncia a sus aspiraciones de entrar en la OTAN, Rusia lo vincula a la demanda de desmilitarización. Y esto no es aceptable para Ucrania.
Zelensky también insiste en que Ucrania reciba fuertes garantías de seguridad a cambio de renunciar a ser miembro de la OTAN. La propuesta de Ucrania es incluir una gran cantidad de estados garantes, los miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU más Canadá, Alemania, Israel, Italia, Polonia y Turquía, y explicar claramente las salvaguardias para proteger a Ucrania de una mayor agresión rusa.
La delegación de Ucrania se refirió al hecho de que esta garantía debería ser tan fuerte como el artículo 5 del Tratado de la Alianza Atlántica. Los estados garantes tendrían que apoyar a Ucrania, con ayuda militar e incluso con una zona de exclusión aérea.
Dado que la OTAN ya tiene cuidado de no cruzar ciertas líneas y no involucrarse directamente en la guerra, la propuesta de Ucrania no puede implementarse por completo. Pero el objetivo principal de los ucranianos es centrar la atención en las garantías de seguridad tangibles. Otro detalle de la propuesta ucraniana es la sugerencia de que los estados garantes no solo no se interpongan en el camino, sino que apoyen activamente una mayor integración de Ucrania en la Unión Europea.
El hecho de que Putin vea la pertenencia a la UE y a Ucrania como un peligro para su sistema político y económico ha sido menos evidente a lo largo de los años. Por lo tanto, llama la atención que la parte rusa señale a Austria y Suecia como posibles modelos para Ucrania.
Aunque la reacción ucraniana a la propuesta rusa fue negativa, buscando en cambio promover un “modelo ucraniano” diferente y más institucionalizado, cabe señalar que Austria y Suecia –al igual que Finlandia– ingresaron en la UE en 1995 y ampliaron gradualmente el significado de neutralidad. Suecia terminó abandonando la referencia explícita a la neutralidad militar, y los tres países cooperan hoy con la OTAN.
Estas trayectorias son familiares para Rusia. Por lo tanto, una referencia a cualquiera de estos países reconoce, intencionalmente o no, que la Ucrania de la posguerra podría seguir un camino similar. La UE podría desempeñar un papel en la institucionalización de la seguridad de Ucrania, siempre que el bloque pueda llegar a un consenso sobre el camino a seguir.
Las otras demandas clave de Putin, el reconocimiento de Crimea como territorio ruso y la pseudoindependencia de las llamadas Repúblicas Populares de Donbas, dejan mucho menos espacio para el compromiso.
Los negociadores ucranianos han sugerido que se podría estipular un período de 15 años para que el estatus de la península se resuelva bilateralmente. Para Putin y para las élites y la sociedad rusa, este tema está cerrado, por lo que parece más probable que acabe fuera de un acuerdo de paz.
En cuanto a los territorios ocupados por Rusia en Donbas, la parte ucraniana propuso volver a las negociaciones sobre el estatus. Sobre el papel podría encontrarse una fórmula que deje abierto el estatuto final de los territorios. Las partes del sureste de Ucrania sobre las que las tropas rusas han obtenido un control parcial o total también tendrán que figurar en las negociaciones a medida que avanzan.
Zelensky enfrenta un obstáculo adicional: se comprometió con un referéndum y una votación parlamentaria sobre la versión final del acuerdo. El presidente parece estar preparando a su país para la eventualidad de aceptar un estatus neutral, pero la cuestión de la integridad territorial está tan ligada a la resistencia del ejército ucraniano y de la población en general que es difícil imaginar que Crimea o partes de Donbass puede figurar en un acuerdo sometido a votación popular.
Es obvio que las garantías de seguridad vinculadas a la neutralidad militar requerirán tiempo y voluntad política para negociar. Esta voluntad política no es visible actualmente en el lado ruso, pero podría aparecer si la guerra se prolonga.
Extraido de Politica Exterior
Artículo publicado originalmente en inglés en Carnegie Europe.
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