Por: John Simpson
Los esfuerzos de Turquía para mediar en el conflicto entre Rusia y Ucrania parecen arrojar luz sobre las intenciones de Vladimir Putin.
El jueves, el presidente ruso llamó al líder de Turquía, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, y le dijo cuáles eran las demandas precisas de Rusia para un acuerdo de paz con Ucrania.
En una entrevista de la BBC con el principal asesor y portavoz de Erdogan, Ibrahim Kalin, que formaba parte del pequeño grupo de funcionarios que respondieron a la llamada, quedó claro que las demandas rusas se dividen en dos categorías.
Según Kalin, las primeras cuatro demandas no son demasiado difíciles de cumplir para Ucrania.
El principal es la aceptación de Ucrania de que debería ser neutral y no debería intentar unirse a la OTAN. El presidente de Ucrania, Volodymyr Zelensky, ya lo ha reconocido.
También hay otras demandas en esta categoría que en su mayoría parecen ser elementos que harían que Moscú salvara la cara.
Ucrania tendría que someterse a un proceso de desarme para garantizar que no sea una amenaza para Rusia. Debería haber protección para el idioma ruso en Ucrania. Y a eso se suma la “desnazificación” de la que habla Putin.
Esto es profundamente ofensivo para Zelensky, que es judío y tiene familiares perdidos en el Holocausto, pero la parte turca cree que será bastante fácil de aceptar para Zelensky.
Quizás sea suficiente que Ucrania condene todas las formas de neonazismo y prometa reprimirlas.
La parte dificil
Es en la segunda categoría de demandas donde radica la dificultad.
En su llamada telefónica, Putin dijo que quiere negociar cara a cara con el presidente Zelensky antes de que pueda ponerse de acuerdo sobre estos puntos.
El presidente ucraniano ya ha dicho que está preparado para reunirse con el presidente ruso y negociar con él cara a cara.
Simplemente explicó que involucraban al «Estado de Crimea» y al «Estado de Donbas», regiones en el este de Ucrania, partes de las cuales ya se separaron del país y reafirmaron su identidad rusa.
Aunque Kalin no entró en detalles, se supone que Rusia exigirá que el gobierno ucraniano ceda territorio en el este de Ucrania. Eso sería profundamente controvertido.
El otro escenario es que Rusia exigirá que Ucrania acepte formalmente que Crimea, la península que anexó ilegalmente en 2014, ahora pertenece a la Federación Rusa. Si este es el caso, será un trago amargo para Ucrania.
Sin embargo, eso ya es un hecho consumado, a pesar de que Rusia no tiene base legal para poseer Crimea y, de hecho, firmó un tratado internacional tras la caída de la Unión Soviética, antes de que Vladimir Putin llegara al poder, aceptando que la península era parte de Ucrania.
Aun así, las demandas del presidente Putin no son tan duras como algunas personas temían y no parecen valer la pena toda la violencia, el derramamiento de sangre y la destrucción que Rusia ha infligido a Ucrania.
Dado su férreo control sobre los medios rusos, no debería ser demasiado difícil para él y sus secuaces presentar esto como una gran victoria. Sin embargo, para Ucrania tendría serias repercusiones.
Si los pequeños detalles de cualquier acuerdo no se resuelven cuidadosamente, el presidente Putin o sus sucesores siempre podrían usarlos como excusa para invadir Ucrania nuevamente.
Podría llevar mucho tiempo llegar a un acuerdo de paz, incluso si un alto el fuego detiene el derramamiento de sangre mientras tanto.
Ucrania ha sufrido terriblemente en las últimas semanas y la reconstrucción de los pueblos y ciudades que Rusia ha dañado y destruido llevará mucho tiempo. También la reubicación de los millones de refugiados que han huido de sus hogares.
¿Y qué sucede con el propio Vladimir Putin? Ha habido sugerencias de que está enfermo o incluso mentalmente desequilibrado.
Pero Kalin dice que «absolutamente» no detectó nada inusual en la llamada telefónica. Como dijo, Putin había sido claro y conciso en todo lo que decía.
Incluso si logra presentar un acuerdo con Ucrania como una gloriosa victoria sobre el neonazismo, su posición con los rusos se debilitará. Cada vez más personas se dan cuenta de que se excedieron.
Y las historias de soldados que han sido asesinados o capturados se están difundiendo rápidamente.
Original de BBC
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