Con la reanudación de las tensiones de la Guerra Fría en torno a Ucrania, la Unión Europea teme por su suministro de gas. Rusia suministra más de un tercio del gas consumido por los 27 estados miembros y Ucrania es un país de tránsito para el gas ruso. Así, en paralelo a las negociaciones diplomáticas, Bruselas e incluso Washington buscan fuentes alternativas para Europa.
En la crisis de Ucrania, el suministro de gas es, según Leticia Rodríguez, experta en Asuntos Europeos y Mediterráneos de la Universidad de Granada, «uno de los puntos que más preocupa a la Unión Europea en su conjunto, por lo que los Estados miembros ha habido diferentes respuestas al conflicto: Alemania, por ejemplo, “es reacia a dar apoyo militar debido a su dependencia energética de Rusia”.
Pero Europa está bastante bien posicionada geográficamente hablando. Desde este punto de vista, “ningún continente tiene tantas alternativas como Europa”, explica Pierre Terzian, director de la revista Petrostratégie, porque se encuentra en el centro de grandes reservas del Mar del Norte, Mar Caspio, Norte de África, etc.
También está conectado por «gasoductos de Noruega, Argelia y Azerbaiyán», agrega Thierry Bros, profesor de Sciences Po Paris y especialista en el tema. Pero esta no es realmente una opción a corto plazo porque “estos países no tienen capacidad de producción adicional”, modera.
Gas natural licuado
Así que todas las miradas se vuelven hacia el gas natural licuado. El GNL puede llegar por barco desde todo el mundo y ofrece más flexibilidad relativa. Europa todavía necesita terminales. La capacidad de regasificación media del continente, incluido Reino Unido, permitiría, en términos absolutos, compensar gran parte del gas ruso. Pero el consumo de gas es «estacional», dice Pierre Terzian. Por ello, en pleno invierno, el uso de las terminales es actualmente muy superior a la media anual.
En Francia, por ejemplo, las terminales están «saturadas», dijo a la AFP Vincent Demoury, delegado general del Grupo Internacional de Importadores de Gas Natural Licuado. Sin embargo, “todavía hay países con una capacidad disponible importante, especialmente España y Reino Unido”, apunta. El gas que ingresaría a estas terminales podría redistribuirse en forma gaseosa, a través de la red de gasoductos del continente, a los países que lo necesiten.
¿Redireccionar las entregas de GNL?
Los principales países exportadores deben seguir siendo capaces de suministrar GNL. Entre los tres gigantes, Australia dice que está lista para enviar mercancías a Europa, «pero su GNL es caro de producir y hay mucho transporte involucrado», dice Thierry Bros. La tripleta la completan Estados Unidos y Qatar, cuyo emir, el jeque Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, fue recibido este lunes en la Casa Blanca. Y la energía fue uno de los temas de la agenda.
Las negociaciones están en marcha según una fuente qatarí. Pero Doha no tiene una «varita mágica», dijo a la AFP Bill Farren-Price, director de la consultora energética Enverus. Los Emiratos no tienen capacidad de suministro adicional, ni tampoco los otros grandes productores de GNL. Se trataría por tanto de reorientar las entregas previstas para Asia. La operación tendría repercusiones en el mercado asiático y podría costar aún más a los europeos, que ya están pagando facturas más caras de la historia.
“Qatar ya está produciendo al máximo, entonces habría que ver si todavía es capaz de aumentar esa producción de gas, y este tema va ligado al segundo, y es que los contratos de Qatar con los mercados asiáticos hacen que exporte entre 60 y 70% de tu gas. El tercer tema es que Qatar exporta gas licuado y no todos los países europeos tienen la infraestructura para transformarlo. Uno de los países que no cuenta con esta infraestructura, y precisamente el país que más necesita este gas, es Alemania. dice Leticia Rodríguez.
Diversificar
“Podemos imaginar que con esta crisis Europa comenzará a firmar contratos a largo plazo con otros proveedores”, estima Thierry Bros, citando a Qatar, Estados Unidos, Argelia y Nigeria.
La opción preferida, a ojos de Pierre Terzian, es un suministro desde Argelia o Libia. Lo principal, a su juicio, es evitar los «tránsitos largos» por el gasoducto para no multiplicar los riesgos vinculados a posibles fricciones geopolíticas.
Dicho esto, aunque los suministros de Rusia fueron históricamente bajos en enero, el riesgo de un cierre total de los grifos sigue siendo poco probable para muchos analistas. «Esto plantearía serios riesgos a largo plazo para la estabilidad financiera y la influencia política de Rusia en Europa», dice Eurasia Group.
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