Por: Hernando Sanchez
La presidencia ucraniana estima que las posibilidades de llegar a una «solución diplomática» a la crisis con Rusia son «considerablemente mayores» que las de una «escalada» militar. Por su parte, los servicios secretos de Estados Unidos no descartan una invasión de todo el país. En el fondo, sin embargo, nadie sabe con certeza qué sucederá en la crisis de Ucrania.
«Las posibilidades de encontrar una solución diplomática a una desescalada son considerablemente mayores que la amenaza de una nueva escalada», dijo Myhailo Podoliak, asesor principal de la administración ucraniana, tras las advertencias de la inteligencia estadounidense de que Moscú está intensificando los preparativos para una escalada de invasión de Ucrania en gran escala.
«Desde la primavera pasada se mantiene una importante concentración de tropas rusas cerca de nuestras fronteras (…)», pero su objetivo es «causar una presión psicológica masiva», añadió.
Rusia realiza «rotaciones de tropas», maniobras y movimientos de armas, prosiguió el funcionario en sus comentarios escritos, facilitados a la AFP por el servicio de prensa presidencial.
Sin embargo, Ucrania y sus aliados occidentales deben «prepararse para todos los escenarios posibles y lo estamos haciendo al 100%», advirtió Podoliak.
Los servicios secretos de Estados Unidos comparten este análisis. En cualquier caso, tampoco están seguros de si el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, está decidido a pasar a la ofensiva.
Lo que sí parece claro es que el presidente ruso quiere tener todas las opciones a su disposición: desde una invasión limitada de la región prorrusa de Donbas en Ucrania hasta una invasión total del país vecino, dijeron los funcionarios.
La inteligencia estadounidense considera que Rusia ya ha desplegado el 70% del aparato militar necesario para una invasión a gran escala de Ucrania, que alcanzaría una capacidad suficiente, es decir, unos 150.000 efectivos, para lanzar su eventual ofensiva dentro de dos semanas.
Según funcionarios estadounidenses, sus servicios de inteligencia aún no han podido establecer si el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, ha tomado la decisión de actuar o no, pero está considerando todas las opciones posibles, que van desde una invasión parcial del enclave separatista de Donbas hasta una invasión completa.
Si Putin optara por lo radical, podría cercar la capital Kiev y derrocar al presidente Volodimir Zelensky en apenas 48 horas, según estos funcionarios.
También advirtieron que este posible conflicto tendría un alto costo humano, con el riesgo de causar la muerte de entre 25.000 y 50.000 civiles, entre 5.000 y 25.000 soldados ucranianos y entre 3.000 y 10.000 soldados rusos. Esto supondría también un desplazamiento de entre uno y cinco millones de refugiados, principalmente a Polonia.
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