Angecia: AP
Nuevos informes de inteligencia estadounidenses sostienen que Rusia ha intensificado los preparativos para una invasión a gran escala de Ucrania y ya tiene el 70% de las fuerzas que necesitaría para tal ataque, que tomaría Kiev en 48 horas y dejaría al menos 50.000 víctimas mortales, dijeron funcionarios estadounidenses.
La nueva estimación del espionaje estadounidense fue minimizada por Ucrania, que instó a desconfiar de los «pronósticos apocalípticos», al considerar que las posibilidades de una «solución diplomática» con Rusia son «muy superiores» a las de una «escalada militar».
Moscú ya ha concentrado 110.000 efectivos en las fronteras con Ucrania, y podría tener capacidad suficiente para lanzar una ofensiva en dos semanas, según estos miembros de las agencias de inteligencia que han mantenido sesiones informativas con congresistas estadounidenses y representantes de sus aliados europeos en los últimos días.
Sin embargo, la inteligencia estadounidense no está segura, de si, el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, está decidido a pasar a la ofensiva.
Vehículos de la 82 División Aerotransportada del Ejército de EE. UU. salieron del aeropuerto de Jasionka cerca de Rzeszow, Polonia, el 6 de febrero de 2022.
No obstante, Putin quiere tener todas las opciones a su disposición: desde una invasión limitada de la región prorrusa de Donbas en Ucrania, hasta una invasión total del país vecino, dijeron los funcionarios.
Los funcionarios estadounidenses, que hablaron de las evaluaciones internas del gobierno sobre el caso bajo condición de anonimato, describieron una serie de indicadores que sugieren que Putin tiene la intención de lanzar una invasión en las próximas semanas, aunque el tamaño y la escala no están claros. Hicieron hincapié en que una solución diplomática todavía parece posible.
Fuerzas Nucleares
Notable entre esos indicadores militares es un ejercicio de las fuerzas nucleares estratégicas de Rusia, que, generalmente se lleva a cabo cada otoño y ha sido reprogramado para mediados de febrero a marzo. Eso coincide con lo que los analistas estadounidenses ven como la ventana más probable para una invasión.
Rusia ha negado repetidamente que esté planeando invadir Ucrania.
Para la inteligencia estadounidense, si Rusia opta por un ataque a gran escala, la fuerza invasora podría tomar la capital, Kiev, y derrocar al presidente Volodimir Zelensky en cuestión de 48 horas.
Tal ataque podría dejar entre 25.000 y 50.000 civiles muertos, además de entre 5.000 y 25.000 soldados ucranianos y entre 3.000 y 10.000 soldados rusos. También podría desencadenar una avalancha de refugiados de uno a cinco millones de personas, principalmente a Polonia, advirtieron las autoridades.
El presidente Joe Biden ha dispuesto enviar tropas estadounidenses a Polonia para proteger a los miembros de la OTAN, mientras que los diplomáticos trabajan arduamente para persuadir a Rusia de que retire sus tropas de la frontera con Ucrania.
El primer contingente de soldados estadounidenses llegó a Polonia en la madrugada del de ayer domingo. Un Boeing C-17 aterrizó en el aeropuerto de Rzeszow-Jesionka (sureste).
El contingente estadounidense de 1.700 efectivos de la 82 División Aerotransportada se desplegará en el sureste de Polonia, en el flanco este de la OTAN, y estará comandado por el general Christopher Donahue, el último soldado estadounidense que abandonó Afganistán en agosto pasado.
La división es capaz de movilizarse en 18 horas y lanzarse en paracaídas para apoderarse de objetivos estratégicos. Fue creada en 1917 y tiene su sede en Fort Bragg, Carolina del Norte.
Estados Unidos anunció la semana pasada el envío de 3.000 soldados adicionales a Europa del Este para defender a los países de la OTAN «contra cualquier agresión», en plena actividad diplomática para intentar convencer a Moscú de que retire sus tropas concentradas en las fronteras con Ucrania.
Estas nuevas tropas estadounidenses se suman a los 8.500 soldados puestos en alerta a finales de enero por Biden, para ser desplegados en la fuerza de reacción rápida de la OTAN en caso de ser necesario.
Moscú también anunció ejercicios militares conjuntos con Bielorrusia y envió varios batallones al norte de Kiev ya la región de Brest, no lejos de la frontera con Polonia.
Aumento
Los servicios de inteligencia estadounidenses han llegado a la conclusión de que Rusia sigue acumulando una importante fuerza militar en su frontera con Ucrania. Hace dos semanas, un total de 60 batallones del ejército ruso se posicionaron en el norte, este y sur de Ucrania, particularmente en la península de Crimea, que Rusia anexó después de una invasión en 2014.
Pero para el viernes ya había 80 batallones y 14 más estaban en camino desde otras partes de Rusia.
Agregaron unos 1.500 soldados de las fuerzas especiales rusas, conocidos como Spetsnaz, fueron desplegados a lo largo de la frontera con Ucrania hace una semana. Una importante fuerza naval rusa también está posicionada en el Mar Negro, equipada con cinco barcos de asalto anfibios que podrían usarse para desembarcar tropas en la costa sur de Ucrania, dijeron funcionarios estadounidenses.
Además, agregaron, otros seis barcos anfibios fueron vistos saliendo del Mar de Barents, al norte de Rusia, y navegando más allá de Gran Bretaña y a través del Estrecho de Gibraltar, aparentemente en ruta hacia el Mar Negro.
En este contexto, Ucrania minimizo el riesgo de una invasión rusa tras la advertencia de Washington.
«No confíen en los pronósticos del fin del mundo», tuiteó el ministro de Relaciones Exteriores de Ucrania, Dimitro Kuleba. “Ucrania tiene un poderoso apoyo militar internacional sin precedente y está lista para cualquier escenario”, dijo. “Es el enemigo el que debe temernos”, agregó. En la misma línea, Mihailo Podoliak, alto asesor de la administración ucraniana, se expresó: “Las posibilidades de encontrar una solución diplomática son mucho mayores que la amenaza de una nueva escalada”, declaró.
Agencia: AP
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